- The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Phillies
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The New York Mets (-105) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-115) on Friday, June 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mets vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 34-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 29-45 ATS.
Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +150 | O 9.5 -105 | -105 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -185 | U 9.5 -115 | -115 |
Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 53.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.40 Units / 51% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+11.90 Units / 96% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+11.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.90 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+11.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+11.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Josh Harrison has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 50 games (+9.55 Units / 16% ROI)
Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Kodai Senga | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 64 games (+4.05 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 57 games (+12.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+10.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 27-47 against the Run Line (-26.4 Units / -27.83% ROI).
- 34-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -22 Units / -20.87% ROI
- 34-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -9 Units / -11.05% ROI
- 39-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 1.9% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 29-45 against the Run Line (-23.95 Units / -25.28% ROI).
- 38-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -6.93% ROI
- 28-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.65 Units / -18.03% ROI
- 39-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.45 Units / 10.35% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 37% (73/195) against Kodai Senga this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 50% (229/455) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .084 (11-for-131) against Kodai Senga with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: .174 — 100th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 20 of 116 batters (17%) versus the top of the order this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 58% (217/377) in two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (59/310) against Taijuan Walker this season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 10th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 53% of Taijuan Walker’s pitches (199/377) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 51% (52/103) of left-handed hitters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 119-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Mets are just 23-14 (.622) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Mets are just 10-13 (.435) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Phillies are 20-87 (.187) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Phillies are just 9-16 (.360) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 37-25 (.597) after a road win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have won just 50% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (6,261 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Mets are batting .259 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have just 1,803 strikeouts in 9,003 PA’s (20%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have drawn 51 walks in 891 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Phillies are batting .261 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
25% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 141 of 2,083 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies pitchers have an ERA of 3.48 (292.0 IP) at home this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Phillies vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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