Mets vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 25, 2023, 3:32 PM
  • The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Mets
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Mets (+150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Sunday, June 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Mets vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Mets are 35-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 30-46 ATS.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -130O 9 +100+150
Phillies -1.5 +105U 9 -120-185

Mets vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 75.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Mets vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+13.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.55 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+9.90 Units / 69% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+14.85 Units / 106% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+13.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 49 games (+11.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Josh Harrison has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.65 Units / 29% ROI)

Phillies vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Starling Marte 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Tommy Pham 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Brett Baty 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Phillies vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 1.5 +195 1.5 -275
Starling Marte 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Tommy Pham 0.5 -150 0.5 +115
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Brett Baty 0.5 -140 0.5 +105

Phillies vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryce Harper 0.5 +120 0.5 -155
Starling Marte 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Tommy Pham 0.5 +250 0.5 -350
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Brett Baty 0.5 +250 0.5 -350

Phillies vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 4.5 +120 4.5 -155
Zack Wheeler 6.5 +115 6.5 -155
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 66 games (+6.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.20 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+14.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+10.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.65 Units / 32% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 28-48 against the Run Line (-27.15 Units / -27.75% ROI).

  • 35-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.05 Units / -20.47% ROI
  • 34-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -13.34% ROI
  • 41-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 4.24% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 30-46 against the Run Line (-23.7 Units / -24.38% ROI).

  • 39-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.1 Units / -6.78% ROI
  • 28-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.8 Units / -20.14% ROI
  • 41-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.45 Units / 12.46% ROI

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .927 (115 Total Bases / 124 ABs) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .596 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.040 (26 Total Bases / 25 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .433 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .492 (61-for-124) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .340 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .774 (82 Total Bases / 106 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 0 Percentile.

Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .500 (18-for-36) against Zack Wheeler on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .342 — fourth Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,122/2,634) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.2 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (138 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: 80.7

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (2,114/4,839) in non-two strike counts since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Mets are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Mets are just 0-34 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.

The Mets are 120-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.

The Mets are just 10-13 (.435) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Phillies are 37-25 (.597) after a road win since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .491.

The Phillies are just 7-14 (.333) after a road loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .461.

The Phillies are 12-8 (.600) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Phillies are just 27-35 (.435) after a loss as favorites since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (6,298 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Mets hitters have an OPS of .746 (4,882 PA’s) on the road since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.

Mets hitters have just 1,263 strikeouts in 6,298 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .330 (4,882 PA’s) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .295 (900 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .322.

Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Phillies hitter’ K:BB ratio is 4.3 against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 2.7.

25% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets pitchers have walked 61 of 661 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Phillies have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 234 of 3,526 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 142 of 2,101 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Phillies vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
  • Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
  • Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
  • Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
  • Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
  • Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
  • José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.