• The Pirates are -140 favorites vs the Mets
• Mets vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Mets / Pirates TV Channel: WPIX | SNPT

The New York Mets (+115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) on August 7, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Mets are 50-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 56-58 ATS.

Mets vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Zach Thornton 2-2, 2.91 ERA
• Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 6-8, 5.30 ERA

Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Mets vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Carson Benge has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+13.20 Units / 147% ROI)
• A.J. Ewing has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.75 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+11.60 Units / 77% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+10.95 Units / 110% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.55 Units / 57% ROI)
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.25 Units / 68% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 away games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.55 Units / 48% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+13.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 18 games at home (+3.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games at home (+1.45 Units / 6% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 52-62 against the Run Line (-9.45 Units / -6.64% ROI).

• 50-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.15 Units / -21.5% ROI
• 51-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.4 Units / -8.88% ROI
• 56-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -0.35% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 56-58 against the Run Line (-6.6 Units / -4.47% ROI).

• 57-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.1 Units / -8.36% ROI
• 64-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.25 Units / 7.18% ROI
• 50-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.05 Units / -15.58% ROI

Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Mets were 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Mets were just 0-70 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.

The Mets were just 65-13 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.

The Pirates were just 6-50 (.107) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.

The Pirates were just 6-35 (.146) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have 31 extra-base hits out of 123 total hits (just 25%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .683 (3,149 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .689 (2,192 PA’s) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .663 (1,370 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .343 (3,234 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Pirates are batting .272 at home this season — tied for best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of .350 (2,219 PA’s) at home this season — tied for best in MLB.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of .768 (3,234 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 68% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Mets have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Mets have won just 27% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends

Pirates pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

The Pirates have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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