- The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Pirates
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The New York Mets (-120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) on Saturday, June 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mets vs Pirates Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 30-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 33-29 ATS.
Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -110 | -120 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 -110 | +100 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 63.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+8.95 Units / 106% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+8.55 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+12.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+11.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+8.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+8.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 36% ROI)
Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.75 Units / 39% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games (+7.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 23-41 against the Run Line (-23.4 Units / -28.84% ROI).
- 30-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.55 Units / -19.82% ROI
- 30-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.5 Units / -9.2% ROI
- 33-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.07% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-29 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -1.17% ROI).
- 33-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.3 Units / 8.77% ROI
- 30-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -0.95% ROI
- 28-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.5 Units / -6.61% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has walked 36 of 251 batters (14%) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Kodai Senga has allowed a .549 SLG vs right-handed batters (sixth worst)– sixth Percentile and just .178 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (second best among qualified SPs)– 98th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has struck out 34% (41/121) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (191/377) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johan Oviedo has walked 21 of 107 batters (20%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has spotted his fastball inside for a strike just 51% (75/147) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has walked 20 of 104 batters (19%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — third Percentile.
10 of Johan Oviedo’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 5th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 93rd Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets were 89-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets were 88-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets were just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets were 87-5 (.946) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates were just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates were just 52-37 (.584) when allowing 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Pirates were just 59-87 (.404) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Pirates were just 9-32 (.220) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2022 — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .260 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mets hitters have just 534 strikeouts in 2,681 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have just 1,713 strikeouts in 8,621 PA’s (20%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (8,621 PA’s) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .156.
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Pirates are batting just .232 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .671 (4,324 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Pirates pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 2.67 (124.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,409 of 14,744 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 803 of 8,604 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Peter Alonso (Mets): Wrist, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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