- The Pirates are -135 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The New York Mets (+115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-135) on Sunday, June 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mets vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 31-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 33-30 ATS.
Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -110 | +115 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -110 | -135 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+9.95 Units / 105% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.60 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+10.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+7.30 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.65 Units / 28% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (+6.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 60 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 24-41 against the Run Line (-22.1 Units / -26.9% ROI).
- 31-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.55 Units / -18.5% ROI
- 30-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -10.59% ROI
- 34-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 1.47% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 33-30 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -2.96% ROI).
- 33-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 7.28% ROI
- 30-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -2.52% ROI
- 29-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -5.06% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .500 (58-for-116) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: .339 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (22 Total Bases / 22 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .426 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .940 (109 Total Bases / 116 ABs) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: .594 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.540 (145 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 1.057 — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .522 (12-for-23) against Mitch Keller — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .234 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of 1.332 (27 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .678 — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (18/109) against Mitch Keller this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 28% (94 SO in 332 PAs) this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 89th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are just 0-28 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are just 21-11 (.656) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Mets are just 5-4 (.556) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .784.
The Mets are 117-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 0-28 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Pirates are just 1-24 (.040) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .139.
The Pirates are just 7-14 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are 16-2 (.889) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .678.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .260 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters have just 156 strikeouts in 764 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have just 538 strikeouts in 2,687 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (5,971 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Pirates hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .300 (4,324 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .173 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 53 of 558 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 806 of 8,641 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,412 of 14,781 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Peter Alonso (Mets): Wrist, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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