- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Mets vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Mets / Pirates TV Channel: SNY | SNPT
The New York Mets (-140) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) on Saturday, June 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Mets are 48-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 40-42 ATS.
Mets vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Paul Blackburn 0-2, 6.63 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 6-3, 3.59 ERA
Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +115 | O 9.5 -118 | -140 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | U 9.5 -102 | +115 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+11.90 Units / 149% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.15 Units / 65% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.90 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+11.50 Units / 144% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.50 Units / 55% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 83 games (+9.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+9.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 69 games (+6.89 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+4.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 82 games (+17.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 71 games (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+5.85 Units / 23% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 44-39 against the Run Line (+4.09 Units / 3.79% ROI).
- 48-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 1.87% ROI
- 34-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.15 Units / -19.7% ROI
- 47-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.75 Units / 10.77% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 40-42 against the Run Line (-8.5 Units / -7.98% ROI).
- 33-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.95 Units / -14.1% ROI
- 34-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.3 Units / -17.83% ROI
- 46-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +9 Units / 9.87% ROI
Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Blackburn (NYM) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -160 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Blackburn has allowed a slugging percentage of .694 (25 Total Bases / 36 ABs) against right-handed batters this month (5 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .407 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (171/609) against Paul Blackburn since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (87/293) against Paul Blackburn since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
23% of Paul Blackburn’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this month (5 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (104/589) against Bailey Falter this season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 15% (51 SO in 343 PAs) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (558/1,284) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .161 (5-for-31) against Bailey Falter’s low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .266 — 98th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are just 0-30 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Mets are 6-2 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 22-10 (.688) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 2-23 (.080) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Pirates are just 9-67 (.118) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 14-47 (.230) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
The Pirates are just 8-19 (.296) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Mets (Ranks fourth runs allowed) today.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .211 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .218 with runners on base since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .168 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Mets are batting just .124 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .147.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .201 when leading off an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .602 (1,520 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Pirates hitters have put just 26% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .319 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 13% of batters over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 38% of the time over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 26% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
More MLB Reading:
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