- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Pirates
- Mets vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Mets / Pirates TV Channel: WPIX | SNPT
The New York Mets (-145) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) on Sunday, June 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Mets are 48-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 41-42 ATS.
Mets vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Michael Burrows 1-2, 4.50 ERA
Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | O 9 -102 | -145 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -145 | U 9 -118 | +120 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+17.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+11.90 Units / 149% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.95 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Spencer Horwitz has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Walks Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+10.50 Units / 117% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+10.20 Units / 127% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 25% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 84 games (+8.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+8.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 away games (+7.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 70 games (+5.89 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+5.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 83 games (+15.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+12.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 72 games (+10.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+7.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 39% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 44-40 against the Run Line (+3.09 Units / 2.83% ROI).
- 48-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 0.79% ROI
- 35-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.15 Units / -18.39% ROI
- 47-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.65 Units / 9.44% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 41-42 against the Run Line (-7.5 Units / -6.95% ROI).
- 34-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.75 Units / -12.65% ROI
- 35-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.3 Units / -16.54% ROI
- 46-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.9 Units / 8.56% ROI
Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Adam Frazier (PIT) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows (PIT) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Frankie Montas (NYM) | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has pitched 8.1 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Drew Pomeranz has the longest active streak at 28.0.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 53% (51/96) against Frankie Montas when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Frankie Montas threw his off-speed pitches for a strike just 54% (409/763) of the time in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed an OBP of .357 (185 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: .285 — second Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Burrows has a first-pitch in-zone of just 43% (40/92) this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 57% — second Percentile.
Michael Burrows allowed an OPS of just .125 (8 PA’s) in his last appearance — tied for 11th best among among 220 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .675 — 95th Percentile.
Michael Burrows has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (34/65) of opposing batters this month (5 games) — tied for 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Michael Burrows has struck out 31% (16/52) of right-handed batters he faced this month (5 games) — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 89th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 8-91 (.081) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Mets are 14-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 10-67 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Pirates are just 1-16 (.059) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Pirates are just 2-30 (.062) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Pirates are just 15-47 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .174 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .220 with runners on base since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .772 (1,001 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Mets hitters have been successful in just 58% of their sacrifice bunt attempts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 79%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have struck out in 38% of their PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .111 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .229.
The Pirates have scored 82 runs with two outs this season — fewest in MLB.
Pirates hitters have 38 extra-base hits out of 142 total hits (just 27%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 41% of the time this month (26 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this month (26 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets pitchers have walked 13% of batters over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 54% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
More MLB Reading:
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