Mets vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 9

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 09, 2023, 3:33 PM
  • The Mets are +100 favorites vs the Pirates
  • Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The New York Mets (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Friday, June 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Mets vs Pirates Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Mets are 30-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 32-29 ATS.

Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +155O 9.5 -120+100
Pirates +1.5 -190U 9.5 +100-120

Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 54.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Mets vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.10 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Eduardo Escobar has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.85 Units / 105% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+13.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+10.70 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Tucupita Marcano has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+7.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.50 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+7.30 Units / 23% ROI)

Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Francisco Alvarez 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +1150 0.5
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Tommy Pham 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Francisco Alvarez 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -160 0.5 +125
Tommy Pham 0.5 -160 0.5 +125

Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Francisco Alvarez 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +225 0.5 -300
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
Tommy Pham 0.5 +195 0.5 -275

Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tylor Megill 4.5 +105 4.5 -140
Rich Hill 4.5 -135 4.5 +100
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 58 games (+6.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.45 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 58 games (+2.15 Units / 3% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 23-40 against the Run Line (-21.5 Units / -27.13% ROI).

  • 30-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.55 Units / -18.95% ROI
  • 29-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.5 Units / -10.77% ROI
  • 33-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 1.81% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 32-29 against the Run Line (-2.6 Units / -3.24% ROI).

  • 32-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 7.5% ROI
  • 29-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.65 Units / -2.45% ROI
  • 28-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -4.93% ROI

Opponents are hitting .500 (16-for-32) against Tylor Megill’s elevated fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .232 — 0 Percentile.

Tylor Megill has allowed a slugging percentage of .875 (28 Total Bases / 32 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .395 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (50/226) against Tylor Megill with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.

Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 55% (106/194) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (65/199) against Rich Hill this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

12 of Rich Hill’s 35 breaking pitch strikeouts (34%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (59/161) against Rich Hill on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

31 of Rich Hill’s 101 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 99th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Mets are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Mets are just 20-10 (.667) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .786.

The Mets are just 9-11 (.450) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .676.

The Mets are just 5-4 (.556) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .785.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Pirates are 15-2 (.882) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .676.

The Pirates are just 5-7 (.417) after a home loss this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Pirates are just 32-111 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Pirates are 27-2 (.931) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .863.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (5,936 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Mets hitters have just 335 strikeouts in 1,642 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets hitters have an OPS of .745 (5,936 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (4,582 PA’s) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .297 (2,565 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.

Mets pitchers have walked 52 of 548 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 801 of 8,563 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Pirates pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 2.67 (124.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Pirates vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
  • Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
  • Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
  • William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
  • Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
  • Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
  • Peter Alonso (Mets): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
  • Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
  • José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.