- The Mets are +100 favorites vs the Pirates
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The New York Mets (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Friday, June 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Mets vs Pirates Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 30-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 32-29 ATS.
Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | O 9.5 -120 | +100 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 9.5 +100 | -120 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 54.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Francisco Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.85 Units / 105% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+13.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+10.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Tucupita Marcano has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+7.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+7.30 Units / 23% ROI)
Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Rich Hill | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 58 games (+6.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 58 games (+2.15 Units / 3% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 23-40 against the Run Line (-21.5 Units / -27.13% ROI).
- 30-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.55 Units / -18.95% ROI
- 29-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.5 Units / -10.77% ROI
- 33-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 1.81% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 32-29 against the Run Line (-2.6 Units / -3.24% ROI).
- 32-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 7.5% ROI
- 29-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.65 Units / -2.45% ROI
- 28-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -4.93% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .500 (16-for-32) against Tylor Megill’s elevated fastball this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .232 — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed a slugging percentage of .875 (28 Total Bases / 32 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .395 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (50/226) against Tylor Megill with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 55% (106/194) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (65/199) against Rich Hill this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
12 of Rich Hill’s 35 breaking pitch strikeouts (34%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 37% (59/161) against Rich Hill on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
31 of Rich Hill’s 101 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 88 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 99th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are just 20-10 (.667) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Mets are just 9-11 (.450) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .676.
The Mets are just 5-4 (.556) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .785.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are 15-2 (.882) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .676.
The Pirates are just 5-7 (.417) after a home loss this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Pirates are just 32-111 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Pirates are 27-2 (.931) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .863.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (5,936 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have just 335 strikeouts in 1,642 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .745 (5,936 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (4,582 PA’s) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .297 (2,565 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 52 of 548 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 801 of 8,563 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Pirates pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 2.67 (124.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Pirates): Achilles, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- Peter Alonso (Mets): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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