Mets vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 05, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The (92-41) are favorites vs the (92-41)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (10-3), 3.44 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (4-10), 4.42 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The New York Mets () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Monday, September 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Mets vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 84-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 64-65 ATS.

Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets O
Pirates U

Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s matchup with 58.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+16.35 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 39 of his last 64 away games (+13.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 30 away games (+13.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+12.75 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 44 games at home (+14.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games at home (+14.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 44 games at home (+11.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)

Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000

Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Cal Mitchell 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Josh VanMeter 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Cal Mitchell 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Josh VanMeter 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mitch Keller 3.5 -105 3.5 -135
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 77 of their last 135 games (+11.47 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+10.30 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games at home (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.45 Units / 61% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 72-60 against the Run Line (+11.9 Units / 7.29% ROI).

  • 84-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.65 Units / 6.91% ROI
  • 66-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 0.51% ROI
  • 59-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.45 Units / -9.28% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 64-65 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -5.64% ROI).

  • 48-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.65 Units / -7.98% ROI
  • 55-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.35 Units / -12.24% ROI
  • 66-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 3.82% ROI

Hitters have chased just 113 of Taijuan Walker’s 502 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 23%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 65 of Taijuan Walker’s 300 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 150 of Taijuan Walker’s 706 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 32% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .354 (23-for-65) against Taijuan Walker on inside fastballs this season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .258 — sixth Percentile.

Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed batters are hitting .317 (130-for-410) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .420 (182-for-433) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .294 (123-for-418) against Mitch Keller’s non-fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: .222 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .403 (187-for-464) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Mets are 40-6 (.870) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Mets are 62-5 (.925) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .800.

The Mets are 71-22 (.763) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Mets are 39-27 (.591) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Pirates are just 87-24 (.784) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Pirates are just 33-9 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Pirates are just 53-125 (.298) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are just 6-27 (.182) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

Mets hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have just 690 strikeouts in 3,520 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .340 (2,577 PA’s) when leading off an inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.

The Pirates are batting just .094 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (3,332 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .445 (5,689 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have walked 72 of 1,203 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 287 of 3,077 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,079 of 11,246 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates have allowed 1.66 runs per game (219/132) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Pirates pitchers have walked 473 of 5,106 batters (9%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, Day-to-Day
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.