- The Mets (85-50) are -225 favorites vs the Pirates (49-84)
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (10-3), 3.44 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller (4-10), 4.42 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The New York Mets (-225) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+185) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Mets vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 84-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 64-65 ATS.
Mets vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -135 | O 8 +100 | -225 |
| Pirates | +1.5 +110 | U 8 -120 | +185 |
Mets vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+16.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 39 of his last 64 away games (+13.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 30 away games (+13.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+12.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 44 games at home (+14.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games at home (+14.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 44 games at home (+11.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Pirates vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Pirates vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jack Suwinski | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Pirates vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -145 |
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 77 of their last 135 games (+11.47 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+10.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games at home (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.45 Units / 61% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 72-60 against the Run Line (+11.9 Units / 7.29% ROI).
- 84-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.65 Units / 6.91% ROI
- 66-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 0.51% ROI
- 59-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.45 Units / -9.28% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 64-65 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -5.64% ROI).
- 48-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.65 Units / -7.98% ROI
- 55-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.35 Units / -12.24% ROI
- 66-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 3.82% ROI
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 113 of Taijuan Walker’s 502 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 23%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has a strike rate of just 56% (224/400) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 65 of Taijuan Walker’s 300 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .354 (23-for-65) against Taijuan Walker on inside fastballs this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .258 — sixth Percentile.
Mitch Keller: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .420 (182-for-433) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .416 (231 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .298 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .317 (130-for-410) against Mitch Keller since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .373 (987 PA’s) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 0 Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets are 40-6 (.870) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Mets are 29-6 (.829) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Mets are 71-22 (.763) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 74-5 (.937) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 87-24 (.784) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Pirates are just 16-73 (.180) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Pirates are just 53-125 (.298) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Pirates are just 46-74 (.383) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 71% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .264 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,520 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters have just 690 strikeouts in 3,520 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .218 (5,689 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Pirates are batting just .137 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .292 (3,332 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 162 of 2,588 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 228 of 2,561 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,079 of 11,246 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have allowed 1.66 runs per game (219/132) in late innings this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Pirates pitchers have walked 27 of 198 batters (14%) over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, Day-to-Day
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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