- The Mets are -105 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Friday, July 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mets vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 45-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 51-46 ATS.
Mets vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -105 | -105 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 -115 | -115 |
Mets vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 52.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+17.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 37 games (+16.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 40 games (+16.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+16.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+16.35 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 43 games (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+13.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+11.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 27 games (+9.90 Units / 37% ROI)
Red Sox vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Red Sox vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Red Sox vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -140 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
| Kodai Senga | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 86 games (+12.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.05 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+7.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 84 games (+7.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+6.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 37-59 against the Run Line (-29.7 Units / -24.37% ROI).
- 45-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.75 Units / -18.45% ROI
- 39-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.65 Units / -18.55% ROI
- 53-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.1 Units / 9.59% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 51-46 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.79% ROI).
- 51-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 2.02% ROI
- 51-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 2.8% ROI
- 43-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -12.72% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has walked 24 of 210 right-handed batters (11%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fifth Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strikeout rate of 54% (62 SO in 114 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strike rate of just 59% (485/820) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 49 of 407 batters (12%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed an OPS of 1.044 (154 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: .700 — 0 Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of .688 (44 Total Bases / 64 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .421 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 18% (13/72) against Kutter Crawford with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has thrown elevated pitches 53% of the time (118/223) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mets are just 16-15 (.516) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Mets are 127-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are just 3-11 (.214) after a loss as underdogs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Mets are 121-9 (.931) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .872.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Red Sox are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 28-27 (.509) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Red Sox are just 10-39 (.204) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Red Sox are just 9-14 (.391) after a home loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 67% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Mets are batting .259 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Mets are batting just .230 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Mets hitters have an OBP of just .303 (1,613 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .400 (413 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Red Sox are batting .341 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .280 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 60 of 857 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Red Sox vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraine, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- Thomas Pham (Mets): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
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