- The Red Sox are -120 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The New York Mets (+100) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-120) on Saturday, July 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Mets vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 45-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 51-46 ATS.
Mets vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -190 | O 9.5 -120 | +100 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | U 9.5 +100 | -120 |
Mets vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+16.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+16.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+15.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 43 games (+15.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.40 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+11.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 55% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 16 games at home (+8.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Red Sox vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Red Sox vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Red Sox vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Red Sox vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| James Paxton | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 86 games (+12.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.05 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+7.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 84 games (+7.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+6.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 37-59 against the Run Line (-29.7 Units / -24.37% ROI).
- 45-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.75 Units / -18.45% ROI
- 39-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.65 Units / -18.55% ROI
- 53-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.1 Units / 9.59% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 51-46 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.79% ROI).
- 51-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 2.02% ROI
- 51-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 2.8% ROI
- 43-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -12.72% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 14% (4/29) against Max Scherzer — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed a slugging percentage of just .048 (1 Total Bases / 21 ABs) over the past seven days (1 games) — best in NL over the last week; League Avg: .447 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .059 (1-for-17) against Max Scherzer — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .251 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (17/75) against Max Scherzer over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has allowed an OPS of .991 (23 PA’s) with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .515 — first Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of .391 (23 PA’s) with two-strikes — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .241 — second Percentile.
James Paxton has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to June 19th — Freddy Peralta has the longest active streak at 8.
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of just .239 (184 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .308 — 97th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mets are 127-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are just 30-15 (.667) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .784.
The Mets are just 1-40 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are just 5-91 (.052) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Red Sox are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 41-2 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Red Sox are 14-21 (.400) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Red Sox are just 9-14 (.391) after a home loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .745 (6,845 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Mets hitters are slugging just .208 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (8 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .566.
The Mets have been successful on 67% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (6,845 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .400 (413 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .341 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Red Sox are batting .280 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .341 (2,570 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 350 of 3,608 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 60 of 857 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (8 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Red Sox vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraine, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- Thomas Pham (Mets): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
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