- The Red Sox are -145 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brennan Bernardino
- Watch the game on ESPN
The New York Mets (+120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on Sunday, July 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Mets vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 46-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 52-47 ATS.
Mets vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -155 | O 10.5 -105 | +120 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | U 10.5 -115 | -145 |
Mets vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 66.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+16.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+16.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 45 games (+14.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+14.75 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+14.10 Units / 78% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+13.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 29 games (+10.20 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Red Sox vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jeff McNeil | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Peter Alonso | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Red Sox vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 88 games (+12.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+7.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 86 games (+7.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 55 games (+5.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 38-60 against the Run Line (-30.7 Units / -24.41% ROI).
- 46-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.75 Units / -18.17% ROI
- 40-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.8 Units / -18.31% ROI
- 54-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.95 Units / 9.25% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 52-47 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -0.23% ROI).
- 52-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 1.86% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 2.61% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.7 Units / -12.6% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .886 (31 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .433 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .905 (124 Total Bases / 137 ABs) when behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .597 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .388 (45-for-116) against Carlos Carrasco’s inside fastball since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .260 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .733 (85 Total Bases / 116 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brennan Bernardino allowed a batting average of just .087 vs right-handed batters (tied for eighth best)– 93rd Percentile and .375 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (tied for ninth worst among qualified RPs)– ninth Percentile.
Brennan Bernardino has allowed an OBP of just .216 (51 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: .316 — 97th Percentile.
Brennan Bernardino has induced opposing hitters to ground into 6 double plays in 23 opportunities (26%) this season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Brennan Bernardino has walked 1 of 51 left-handed batters (2%) this season — 4th best among in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mets are 128-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are just 31-16 (.660) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .783.
The Mets are just 1-41 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 17-15 (.531) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Red Sox are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 42-2 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Red Sox are 38-2 (.950) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .854.
The Red Sox are 41-7 (.854) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .783.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .332 (5,242 PA’s) on the road since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters have just 537 strikeouts in 2,586 PA’s (21%) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets are batting just .222 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Mets have scored first in just 36% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .397 (421 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .338 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Red Sox are batting .289 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .251.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 64% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 60 of 875 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 284 of 3,725 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 67% of opposing batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Red Sox vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraine, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- Thomas Pham (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
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