- The Mets (49-30) are -175 favorites vs the Reds (27-51)
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (6-2), 2.72 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (3-9), 5.71 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets (-175) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+145) on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Mets vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 49-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 34-44 ATS.
Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -110 | O 10 -115 | -175 |
| Reds | +1.5 -110 | U 10 -105 | +145 |
Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s matchup with 59.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 16 games (+6.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.10 Units / 87% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 68% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Reds vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Reds vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -115 |
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+13.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 79 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 79 games (+7.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 79 games (+7.17 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 52 games (+2.50 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 52 games (+0.95 Units / 2% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 43-36 against the Run Line (+7.4 Units / 7.76% ROI).
- 49-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.15 Units / 12.01% ROI
- 41-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.15 Units / 3.57% ROI
- 34-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -12.06% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 34-44 against the Run Line (-16.4 Units / -16.78% ROI).
- 27-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.45 Units / -22.1% ROI
- 43-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 6.1% ROI
- 34-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.7 Units / -15.94% ROI
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (25/41) against Taijuan Walker — 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 94th Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has not walked any of the 38 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 123 of Taijuan Walker’s 569 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 31% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .459 (17-for-37) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .334 — fourth Percentile.
Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .980 (50 Total Bases / 51 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .427 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .536 (15-for-28) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .281 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (18/70) against Hunter Greene in two-strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .710 (98 Total Bases / 138 ABs) on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .427 — 0 Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are 35-4 (.897) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Mets are 23-17 (.575) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Mets are 24-6 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .672.
The Mets are 41-9 (.820) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 1-44 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.
The Reds are just 26-37 (.413) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Reds are just 21-4 (.840) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Reds are just 9-40 (.184) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 77% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have 180 extra-base hits out of 588 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .287 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Reds hitters are slugging just .384 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 34% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Reds are batting just .228 against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.72 (340.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Reds have allowed 1.96 runs per game (153/78) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 40 double plays in 617 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have walked 914 of 9,205 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- James Farmer (Reds): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Bassitt (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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