Mets vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 04, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (49-30) are -175 favorites vs the Reds (27-51)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (6-2), 2.72 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (3-9), 5.71 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The New York Mets (-175) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+145) on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Mets vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 49-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 34-44 ATS.

Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 -110O 10 -115-175
Reds +1.5 -110U 10 -105+145

Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s matchup with 59.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 16 games (+6.35 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.10 Units / 87% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)

Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Brandon Drury 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Joey Votto 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jonathan India 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Mike Moustakas 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Reds vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Brandon Drury 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Joey Votto 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Jonathan India 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Mike Moustakas 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Reds vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Brandon Drury 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Joey Votto 0.5 +130 0.5 -185
Jonathan India 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Mike Moustakas 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Greene 5.5 -120 5.5 -115
Taijuan Walker 4.5 -125 4.5 -110
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+13.80 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 79 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 79 games (+7.40 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 79 games (+7.17 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 52 games (+2.50 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 52 games (+0.95 Units / 2% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 43-36 against the Run Line (+7.4 Units / 7.76% ROI).

  • 49-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.15 Units / 12.01% ROI
  • 41-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.15 Units / 3.57% ROI
  • 34-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -12.06% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 34-44 against the Run Line (-16.4 Units / -16.78% ROI).

  • 27-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.45 Units / -22.1% ROI
  • 43-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 6.1% ROI
  • 34-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.7 Units / -15.94% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (25/41) against Taijuan Walker — 6th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 94th Percentile.

Taijuan Walker has not walked any of the 38 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 123 of Taijuan Walker’s 569 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 31% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .459 (17-for-37) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .334 — fourth Percentile.

Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .980 (50 Total Bases / 51 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .427 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .536 (15-for-28) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .281 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (18/70) against Hunter Greene in two-strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .710 (98 Total Bases / 138 ABs) on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .427 — 0 Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Mets are 35-4 (.897) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Mets are 23-17 (.575) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Mets are 24-6 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .672.

The Mets are 41-9 (.820) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Reds are just 1-44 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.

The Reds are just 26-37 (.413) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Reds are just 21-4 (.840) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.

The Reds are just 9-40 (.184) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Mets have scored first in 77% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters have 180 extra-base hits out of 588 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .287 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Reds hitters are slugging just .384 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 34% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.

The Reds are batting just .228 against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.72 (340.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Reds have allowed 1.96 runs per game (153/78) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 40 double plays in 617 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have walked 914 of 9,205 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • James Farmer (Reds): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Bassitt (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.