Mets vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (50-30) are -225 favorites vs the Reds (27-52)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (5-1), 2.53 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (1-2), 5.52 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The New York Mets (-225) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+180) on Tuesday, July 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).

The Mets vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 50-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 34-45 ATS.

Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 -135O 9 -105-225
Reds +1.5 +110U 9 -115+180

Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 53.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+6.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 65% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+9.55 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)

Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +350 0.5 -600
Joey Votto 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Jonathan India 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Mike Moustakas 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Nick Senzel 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Reds vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Joey Votto 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Jonathan India 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Mike Moustakas 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Nick Senzel 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Reds vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Joey Votto 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Jonathan India 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Mike Moustakas 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Nick Senzel 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Lodolo 4.5 -135 4.5 -105
Max Scherzer 7.5 +110 7.5 -155
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+14.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 80 games (+14.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 80 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 80 games (+8.17 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 51 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 53 games (+1.45 Units / 2% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 44-36 against the Run Line (+8.4 Units / 8.7% ROI).

  • 50-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.15 Units / 12.74% ROI
  • 42-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.15 Units / 4.65% ROI
  • 34-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.5 Units / -13.22% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 34-45 against the Run Line (-17.45 Units / -17.66% ROI).

  • 27-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.45 Units / -23.02% ROI
  • 44-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 7.17% ROI
  • 34-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.85 Units / -17.05% ROI

Max Scherzer has struck out 36% (159/438) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (111/286) against Max Scherzer with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.

Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .220 (437 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 38% (342/911) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.

Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Mets are 21-4 (.840) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Mets are 24-17 (.585) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Mets are 26-13 (.667) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Mets are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Reds are just 1-45 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.

The Reds are just 9-41 (.180) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Reds are just 21-4 (.840) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.

The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .286 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

The Mets have scored first in 77% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Mets hitters have an OPS of 1.379 (15 PA’s) during extra innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .810.

Reds hitters are slugging just .375 on the road since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Reds hitters are slugging .453 at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.

The Reds have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.

Reds hitters have an OPS of .786 (2,793 PA’s) against right-handed relievers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have walked 8 of 54 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (349.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

The Reds have allowed 1.95 runs per game (154/79) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Reds pitchers have walked 917 of 9,248 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • James Farmer (Reds): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Elbow, Day-to-Day
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Bassitt (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.