- The Mets (50-30) are -225 favorites vs the Reds (27-52)
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (5-1), 2.53 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (1-2), 5.52 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The New York Mets (-225) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+180) on Tuesday, July 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Mets vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 50-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 34-45 ATS.
Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -135 | O 9 -105 | -225 |
| Reds | +1.5 +110 | U 9 -115 | +180 |
Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+6.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 65% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+9.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 69% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -600 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Reds vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Reds vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 -105 |
| Max Scherzer | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+14.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 80 games (+14.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 80 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 80 games (+8.17 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 51 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 53 games (+1.45 Units / 2% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 44-36 against the Run Line (+8.4 Units / 8.7% ROI).
- 50-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.15 Units / 12.74% ROI
- 42-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.15 Units / 4.65% ROI
- 34-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.5 Units / -13.22% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 34-45 against the Run Line (-17.45 Units / -17.66% ROI).
- 27-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.45 Units / -23.02% ROI
- 44-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 7.17% ROI
- 34-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.85 Units / -17.05% ROI
Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Scherzer has struck out 36% (159/438) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (111/286) against Max Scherzer with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 99th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OBP of just .220 (437 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 38% (342/911) against Max Scherzer since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are 21-4 (.840) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Mets are 24-17 (.585) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Mets are 26-13 (.667) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Mets are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 1-45 (.022) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.
The Reds are just 9-41 (.180) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Reds are just 21-4 (.840) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .286 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Mets have scored first in 77% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Mets hitters have an OPS of 1.379 (15 PA’s) during extra innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .810.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .375 on the road since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Reds hitters are slugging .453 at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Reds have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.
Reds hitters have an OPS of .786 (2,793 PA’s) against right-handed relievers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have walked 8 of 54 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (349.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Reds have allowed 1.95 runs per game (154/79) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Reds pitchers have walked 917 of 9,248 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- James Farmer (Reds): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Bassitt (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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