- The Mets (50-31) are -165 favorites vs the Reds (28-52)
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (5-1), 3.24 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (4-2), 4.53 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The New York Mets (-165) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+140) on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Mets vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Mets are 50-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 35-45 ATS.
Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -110 | O 10 -110 | -165 |
| Reds | +1.5 -110 | U 10 -110 | +140 |
Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 77.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+7.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.85 Units / 72% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+8.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Reynolds | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Reds vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt Reynolds | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
Reds vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Reynolds | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Ashcraft | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +100 |
| David Peterson | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+13.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 81 games (+11.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 81 games (+7.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 81 games (+6.77 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 54 games (+2.65 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 54 games (+1.90 Units / 3% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 44-37 against the Run Line (+7 Units / 7.15% ROI).
- 50-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.8 Units / 10.4% ROI
- 42-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 3.32% ROI
- 35-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.5 Units / -11.93% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 35-45 against the Run Line (-16.25 Units / -16.28% ROI).
- 28-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.5 Units / -20.47% ROI
- 44-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.1 Units / 5.78% ROI
- 35-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.85 Units / -15.71% ROI
David Peterson: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 46% (68/148) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 59% (439/747) against right-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has not walked any of the 48 batters that he has faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (221/407) of opposing batters since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 65% (49/76) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.4 MPH this season (148 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 88.8
Opponents are hitting just .122 (5-for-41) against Graham Ashcraft on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .264 — 97th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has a strikeout rate of just 15% (28 SO in 189 PAs) this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mets are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Mets are 26-13 (.667) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Mets are 24-18 (.571) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Mets are 15-4 (.789) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Reds are just 22-4 (.846) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .920.
The Reds are just 6-23 (.207) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Reds are just 7-26 (.212) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Reds are just 27-38 (.415) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 77% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have 181 extra-base hits out of 594 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .286 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .326 (3,065 PA’s) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .367 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 35% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Reds have won just 53% of games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.
The Reds are batting .259 at home since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
The Reds have allowed 1.92 runs per game (154/80) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 40 double plays in 626 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.88 (252.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Reds vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Bassitt (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
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