Mets vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 06, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (50-31) are -165 favorites vs the Reds (28-52)
  • Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (5-1), 3.24 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (4-2), 4.53 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The New York Mets (-165) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+140) on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Mets vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 50-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 35-45 ATS.

Mets vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 -110O 10 -110-165
Reds +1.5 -110U 10 -110+140

Mets vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 77.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+7.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 67% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.85 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+8.55 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)

Reds vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Donovan Solano 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jonathan India 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Matt Reynolds 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Reds vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Donovan Solano 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Jonathan India 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Matt Reynolds 0.5 -185 0.5 +125

Reds vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Donovan Solano 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Jonathan India 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Matt Reynolds 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Reds vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Graham Ashcraft 3.5 -140 3.5 +100
David Peterson 4.5 -110 4.5 -125
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 47 games (+13.60 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 81 games (+11.80 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 81 games (+7.00 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 81 games (+6.77 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 54 games (+2.65 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 54 games (+1.90 Units / 3% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 44-37 against the Run Line (+7 Units / 7.15% ROI).

  • 50-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.8 Units / 10.4% ROI
  • 42-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 3.32% ROI
  • 35-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.5 Units / -11.93% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 35-45 against the Run Line (-16.25 Units / -16.28% ROI).

  • 28-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.5 Units / -20.47% ROI
  • 44-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.1 Units / 5.78% ROI
  • 35-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.85 Units / -15.71% ROI

David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 46% (68/148) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has a strike rate of just 59% (439/747) against right-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has not walked any of the 48 batters that he has faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (221/407) of opposing batters since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 65% (49/76) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.4 MPH this season (148 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 88.8

Opponents are hitting just .122 (5-for-41) against Graham Ashcraft on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .264 — 97th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has a strikeout rate of just 15% (28 SO in 189 PAs) this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Mets are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.

The Mets are 26-13 (.667) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .518.

The Mets are 24-18 (.571) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.

The Mets are 15-4 (.789) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Reds are just 22-4 (.846) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .920.

The Reds are just 6-23 (.207) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.

The Reds are just 7-26 (.212) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

The Reds are just 27-38 (.415) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Mets have scored first in 77% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters have 181 extra-base hits out of 594 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .286 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .326 (3,065 PA’s) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Reds hitters are slugging just .367 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 35% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Reds have won just 53% of games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.

The Reds are batting .259 at home since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Reds have allowed 1.92 runs per game (154/80) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 40 double plays in 626 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.88 (252.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.

Reds vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Elbow, Day-to-Day
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Bassitt (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.