Mets vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 1

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(AP Photo/Colin E. Braley)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 01, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Mets are -150 favorites vs the Royals
  • Mets starting pitcher: José Quintana
  • Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The New York Mets (-150) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+125) on Tuesday, August 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Mets vs Royals Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

This season, the Mets are 50-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 43-64 ATS.

Mets vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets-1.5 +105O 10 -115-150
Royals +1.5 -125U 10 -105+125

Mets vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 68.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+18.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+17.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 46 games (+14.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+13.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+12.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+11.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Maikel Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+10.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.40 Units / 45% ROI)

Royals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Dairon Blanco 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Tommy Pham 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Matt Duffy 0.5 +1050 0.5
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +400 0.5 -700
Brett Baty 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Royals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Dairon Blanco 0.5 -210 0.5 +160
Tommy Pham 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Matt Duffy 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Francisco Lindor 1.5 +155 1.5 -200
Brett Baty 0.5 -250 0.5 +190

Royals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Dairon Blanco 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Tommy Pham 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Matt Duffy 0.5 +225 0.5 -300
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +115 0.5 -155
Brett Baty 0.5 +160 0.5 -225

Royals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Quintana 4.5 +115 4.5 -150
Zack Greinke 2.5 -120 2.5 -110
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 95 games (+15.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+3.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+9.65 Units / 80% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 103 games (+9.10 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.95 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+6.95 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+6.85 Units / 49% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 41-64 against the Run Line (-32.4 Units / -24.15% ROI).

  • 50-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.4 Units / -16.55% ROI
  • 42-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.35 Units / -20.16% ROI
  • 59-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.7 Units / 11.02% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 43-64 against the Run Line (-31.85 Units / -24.47% ROI).

  • 32-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.15 Units / -26.34% ROI
  • 49-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.05 Units / -11.07% ROI
  • 56-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.75 Units / 1.49% ROI

Jose Quintana has not allowed a HR in any of his last 14 starts dating back to August 10th, 2022 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 50% (281/560) of the time since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.

Jose Quintana has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.4 MPH against his fastballs since last season (283 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 90.6

Jose Quintana has not allowed a home run in any of the last 78.1 innings he’s appeared — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .409 (27-for-66) against Zack Greinke when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .260 — 0 Percentile.

Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 29% (139 SO in 478 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .350 (63-for-180) against Zack Greinke when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 0 Percentile.

Zack Greinke has struck out just 11% (46/432) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Mets are just 3-11 (.214) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .425.

The Mets are just 34-17 (.667) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .780.

The Mets are 132-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.

The Mets are just 5-25 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Royals are just 8-23 (.258) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .615.

The Royals are just 32-74 (.302) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals are just 8-73 (.099) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .356.

The Royals are just 4-32 (.111) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .385.

Mets hitters have just 640 strikeouts in 3,131 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets are batting just .231 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

The Mets have scored first in just 36% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

The Mets are batting .258 on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .242.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .279 (1,923 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Royals have won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .290 (2,882 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 64% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

Mets pitchers have walked 86 of 918 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Royals have won just 14% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Royals pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Royals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
  • Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
  • Nicholas Pratto (Royals): Groin, D10
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
  • Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
  • Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
  • Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Migraine, D10
  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
  • Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.