- The Mets are -175 favorites vs the Royals
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Royals starting pitcher: Cole Ragans
- Watch the game on BSKC
The New York Mets (-175) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+145) on Wednesday, August 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Mets vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 50-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 44-64 ATS.
Mets vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 -105 | O 9 -115 | -175 |
| Royals | +1.5 -115 | U 9 -105 | +145 |
Mets vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 77.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+19.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+17.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 47 games (+13.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+10.90 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games (+15.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+10.30 Units / 42% ROI)
Royals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Royals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Maikel Garcia | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Royals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Royals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
| Cole Ragans | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+14.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+2.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+9.65 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+8.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 59 of their last 104 games (+7.65 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.10 Units / 48% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 41-65 against the Run Line (-33.4 Units / -24.71% ROI).
- 50-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.9 Units / -17.39% ROI
- 43-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.35 Units / -19.11% ROI
- 59-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.6 Units / 9.97% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 44-64 against the Run Line (-30.85 Units / -23.48% ROI).
- 33-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.85 Units / -24.94% ROI
- 50-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.05 Units / -10.13% ROI
- 56-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 0.55% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (352/681) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strike rate of just 59% (325/553) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .086 (9-for-105) against Kodai Senga on low non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .200 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .200 (77-for-385) against Kodai Senga this season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 97th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cole Ragans has walked 9 of 42 batters (21%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 10% — second Percentile.
Cole Ragans has thrown elevated pitches 57% of the time (71/125) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has allowed a slugging percentage of .478 (11 Total Bases / 23 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 15th highest among among 125 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .345 — 12th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has thrown fastballs up 60% of the time (145/240) this season — 7th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Mets are just 3-11 (.214) after a loss as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Mets are just 34-18 (.654) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Mets are just 5-25 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
The Mets are just 19-17 (.528) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Royals are just 8-23 (.258) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .615.
The Royals are just 11-10 (.524) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .783.
The Royals are just 23-24 (.489) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Royals are just 7-140 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .128.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .748 (7,056 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Mets are batting just .226 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (7,056 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .748 (5,398 PA’s) on the road since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 31% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .279 (1,923 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have walked 388 of 3,987 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 88 of 928 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Nicholas Pratto (Royals): Groin, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraine, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D15
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