- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Royals
- Mets vs Royals Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Mets / Royals TV Channel: SNY | FDKC
The New York Mets (-140) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+115) on Friday, July 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Mets are 53-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 49-45 ATS.
Mets vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga 7-3, 1.47 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 4-9, 3.85 ERA
Mets vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | O 9.5 -120 | -140 |
| Royals | +1.5 -145 | U 9.5 +100 | +115 |
Mets vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Walks Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Luis Torrens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+11.10 Units / 139% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Loftin has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+18.00 Units / 450% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+15.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+14.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+9.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games (+5.95 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 80 games (+1.89 Units / 2% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 94 games (+34.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 86 games (+19.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 46 games at home (+17.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 70 games (+5.35 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 47-47 against the Run Line (-0.91 Units / -0.76% ROI).
- 53-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.07% ROI
- 42-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -12.93% ROI
- 50-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 3.6% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 49-45 against the Run Line (-7.6 Units / -5.68% ROI).
- 46-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -2.28% ROI
- 36-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.97 Units / -25.28% ROI
- 57-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.45 Units / 16.77% ROI
Royals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
Royals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ronny Mauricio (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Royals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Royals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha (KC) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Kodai Senga (NYM) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (15/99) against Kodai Senga this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (58/123) of left-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .103 (6-for-58) against Kodai Senga with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (5/40) against Kodai Senga with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 51% (391/765) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .444 (28-for-63) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .335 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .302 (19-for-63) against Michael Wacha’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .212 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .382 (13-for-34) against Michael Wacha’s low fastballs this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .268 — seventh Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are just 5-13 (.278) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Royals (Ranks second runs allowed) today.
The Mets are 17-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Mets are 22-10 (.688) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Royals are 37-2 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Royals are 41-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .956.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .184 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .216 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .222 with runners on base since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Mets hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of 1.100 (83 PA’s) against LHP this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 26% against Mets pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Royals have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.50 (406.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
More MLB Reading:
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