- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Royals
- Mets vs Royals Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Mets / Royals TV Channel: SNY | FDKC
The New York Mets (-125) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Saturday, July 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Mets are 54-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 49-46 ATS.
Mets vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 1-1, 6.14 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen 5-8, 4.61 ERA
Mets vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -120 | -125 |
| Royals | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 +100 | +105 |
Mets vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 112% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.80 Units / 65% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Loftin has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+18.00 Units / 450% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 75 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 81 games (+3.09 Units / 3% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 66 of their last 95 games (+35.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 47 games at home (+18.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 87 games (+18.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 71 games (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 48-47 against the Run Line (+0.29 Units / 0.24% ROI).
- 54-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 0.62% ROI
- 43-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.45 Units / -11.85% ROI
- 50-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.55 Units / 2.45% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 49-46 against the Run Line (-9 Units / -6.66% ROI).
- 46-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -3.14% ROI
- 37-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.97 Units / -24.06% ROI
- 57-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.3 Units / 15.49% ROI
Royals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Royals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Royals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Royals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas (NYM) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Michael Lorenzen (KC) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas walked 22 of 180 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .480 (82 Total Bases / 171 ABs) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: .357 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .440 (37-for-84) against Frankie Montas on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: .335 — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (77/258) against Frankie Montas since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen has a first-pitch in-zone of just 35% (15/43) this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 56% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .304 (17-for-56) against Michael Lorenzen’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .210 — fifth Percentile.
30% of Michael Lorenzen’s strikeouts are looking against right-handed batters this season — tied for 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 87th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .188 (9-for-48) against Michael Lorenzen’s low fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .265 — 91st Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 17-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mets were 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are just 6-13 (.316) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Royals (Ranks second runs allowed) today.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Royals are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Royals are just 12-50 (.194) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Royals are 41-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .184 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .221 with runners on base since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .772 (1,124 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Mets are batting just .130 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .147.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 47% of the time this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.48 (1105.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
The Royals have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (844.2 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
More MLB Reading:
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