- The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Royals
- Mets vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Royals TV Channel: FDKC | WPIX
The New York Mets (-115) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-105) on Sunday, July 13, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Mets are 55-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 49-47 ATS.
Mets vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Clay Holmes 8-4, 3.31 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Noah Cameron 3-4, 2.56 ERA
Mets vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -102 | -115 |
| Royals | +1.5 -180 | U 8.5 -118 | -105 |
Mets vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 112% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.80 Units / 65% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Loftin has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+18.00 Units / 450% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 away games (+11.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+8.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 82 games (+4.34 Units / 4% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 96 games (+36.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 48 games at home (+19.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 88 games (+19.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 72 games (+3.10 Units / 3% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 49-47 against the Run Line (+1.54 Units / 1.26% ROI).
- 55-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 1.29% ROI
- 43-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -12.77% ROI
- 51-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 3.38% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 49-47 against the Run Line (-10.5 Units / -7.68% ROI).
- 46-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.6 Units / -3.97% ROI
- 37-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.07 Units / -24.86% ROI
- 58-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.3 Units / 16.27% ROI
Royals vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Royals vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Royals vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
Royals vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron (KC) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Clay Holmes (NYM) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 70% (54/77) against Clay Holmes in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Clay Holmes has allowed a slugging percentage of just .250 (13 Total Bases / 52 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .564 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 65% (116/178) against Clay Holmes in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 65% (116/178) against Clay Holmes in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .170 (28-for-165) against Noah Cameron this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.
Noah Cameron has allowed an OPS of just .358 (139 PA’s) on non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .642 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (31/178) against Noah Cameron this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .141 (19-for-135) against Noah Cameron’s non-fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 98th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Mets are 23-10 (.697) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Mets were 8-60 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 47-12 (.797) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Mets are 17-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Royals are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 19-2 (.905) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Royals are just 11-77 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of just .185 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .759 (2,748 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Mets hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of 48% against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Mets have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .889 (648 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.065.
Royals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Batters facing the Mets pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 47% of the time this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Royals pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 40% of the time over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
The Royals have won just 19% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
More MLB Reading:
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