- The – are favorites vs the –
- Mets starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
- Tigers starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The New York Mets () visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers () on Thursday, May 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Detroit.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Mets vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 16-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 16-13 ATS.
Mets vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | O | ||
| Tigers | U |
Mets vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 64.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nick Maton has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+8.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Tigers vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Tigers vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Starling Marte | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Tigers vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Tigers vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Verlander | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 away games (+3.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.30 Units / 4% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+6.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 59% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 15-16 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -3.08% ROI).
- 16-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -11.55% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -10.54% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.6 Units / 1.76% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 16-13 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.97% ROI).
- 12-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 7.07% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -3.89% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -3.78% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 99th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .214 (336 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 99th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .705 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .270 (169 Total Bases / 625 ABs) since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .399 — 99th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eduardo Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of just 9% (3 SO in 33 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a strike rate of just 56% (76/137) in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an OBP of just .235 (136 PA’s) this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .308 — 93rd Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an OBP of just .243 (107 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .302 — 89th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Mets are 104-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Mets are 104-4 (.963) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Mets are 10-9 (.526) on the road this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Mets are 16-1 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .893.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Tigers are just 12-51 (.190) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Tigers are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Tigers are just 10-79 (.112) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Tigers are just 20-47 (.299) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (5,033 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mets hitters have just 989 strikeouts in 5,033 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,925 PA’s) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .357 (866 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .278 (5,207 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .610 (5,207 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .332 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .634 (6,962 PA’s) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 58% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have walked 116 of 1,150 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 85 of 1,088 batters (8%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jose Cabrera (Tigers): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Foot, D60
- Anthony Wingenter (Tigers): Biceps, D15
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Arm, D15
- Kerry Carpenter (Tigers): Shoulder, D10
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Left Ankle, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Brooks Raley (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back Spasms, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
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