- The Twins are + favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on BSN
The New York Mets (+) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+) on Sunday, September 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Mets vs Twins Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 0-0 ATS.
Mets vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | + + | O + | + |
| Twins | + + | U + | + |
Mets vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 77.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+14.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+13.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+12.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+12.15 Units / 82% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+11.50 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+18.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+11.25 Units / 69% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
Twins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
Twins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 -160 | 6.5 +120 |
| Pablo Lopez | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -160 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.24 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+0.70 Units / 6% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+11.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+5.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 55% (196/357) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .397 (31-for-78) against Tylor Megill when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .264 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .357 (25-for-70) against Tylor Megill’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .349 (68-for-195) against Tylor Megill on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .257 — second Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 35% (65/184) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 32% (226/699) against Pablo Lopez this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 88th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has struck out 33% (115/345) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has allowed an OPS of just .501 (154 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .703 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mets are just 2-64 (.030) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are just 5-36 (.122) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mets are just 29-44 (.397) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .481.
The Mets are just 10-20 (.333) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-24 (.351) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 13-45 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Twins are just 19-34 (.358) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Games involving the Mets went UNDER in 71% of their games (38.6% ROI) after a home win this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Mets have been successful on 62% of their hit & run attempts since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets are batting just .236 against LHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .151 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .173.
Twins hitters are slugging .714 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Twins hitters have 1,457 strikeouts in 5,431 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 1,106 strikeouts in 4,042 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 525 of 5,335 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 398 of 5,292 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 83 of 1,276 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Twins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Twins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Foot, D10
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
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