- The Mets are -110 favorites vs the Twins
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Twins starting pitcher: Dallas Keuchel
- Watch the game on BSN
The New York Mets (-110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-110) on Friday, September 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Mets vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 63-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 69-71 ATS.
Mets vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 +100 | -110 |
| Twins | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -120 | -110 |
Mets vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+12.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+9.85 Units / 77% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+9.50 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+20.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+11.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+9.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.20 Units / 61% ROI)
Twins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Twins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Francisco Lindor | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +120 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +135 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.24 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+1.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+10.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+4.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 58-80 against the Run Line (-32.15 Units / -18.42% ROI).
- 63-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.45 Units / -16.64% ROI
- 56-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.1 Units / -18.6% ROI
- 76-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.35 Units / 9.54% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 69-71 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.14% ROI).
- 73-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.15 Units / -6.25% ROI
- 69-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -1.97% ROI
- 65-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -6.39% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – away
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dallas Keuchel has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (1,109/1,760) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Dallas Keuchel has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 53% (330/620) of right-handed hitters since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Dallas Keuchel has a strike rate of just 61% (1,990/3,271) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Dallas Keuchel has struck out just 13% (112/886) of right-handed batters he faced since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mets are just 5-35 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Mets are 144-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mets are just 2-62 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Mets are just 32-42 (.432) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 29-9 (.763) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Twins are 59-1 (.983) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Twins are just 12-24 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .744 (7,959 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have just 1,630 strikeouts in 7,959 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (7,959 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 517 of 5,261 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 116 of 1,218 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 81 of 1,258 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have 240 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 4th most in MLB.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Demetrius Stewart (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
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