- The Twins are -145 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Watch the game on BSN
The New York Mets (+120) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-145) on Saturday, September 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Mets vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 63-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 70-71 ATS.
Mets vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -110 | +120 |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -110 | -145 |
Mets vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 64.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+10.50 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+18.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+11.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.20 Units / 67% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 31 games (+9.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Twins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jordan Luplow | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Twins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jordan Luplow | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Twins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jordan Luplow | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kenta Maeda | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
| David Peterson | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.24 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+0.70 Units / 6% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+11.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+5.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 58-81 against the Run Line (-33.15 Units / -18.89% ROI).
- 63-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.65 Units / -17.19% ROI
- 56-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.2 Units / -19.19% ROI
- 77-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.35 Units / 10.13% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 70-71 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.55% ROI).
- 74-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.15 Units / -5.71% ROI
- 69-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.15 Units / -2.66% ROI
- 66-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.7 Units / -5.69% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 59% (1,577/2,652) against right-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 55% (466/851) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
David Peterson has an ERA of 7.74 (43.0 IP) on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 4.43 — second Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (266/512) of right-handed hitters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kenta Maeda has allowed at least one HR in each of his last nine games dating back to July 19th — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (20/86) against Kenta Maeda on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (23/92) against Kenta Maeda’s curve and slider this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has allowed an OBP of just .262 (126 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .326 — 96th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mets are just 5-35 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mets are 144-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 10-19 (.345) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Mets are just 29-43 (.403) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Twins are just 13-24 (.351) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 60-1 (.984) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 128-4 (.970) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have just 721 strikeouts in 3,487 PA’s (21%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have been successful on 62% of their hit & run attempts since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Games involving the Mets went UNDER in 71% of their games (38.6% ROI) after a home win this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 1,102 strikeouts in 4,030 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .150 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters are slugging .720 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Twins hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 522 of 5,297 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 83 of 1,267 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 396 of 5,255 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Foot, D10
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
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