Mets vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 23, 2022, 10:25 AM
  • The Yankees (75-48) are -120 favorites vs the Mets (79-45)
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (10-3), 3.36 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Francelis Montas (4-10), 3.86 ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The New York Mets (+100) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-120) on Tuesday, August 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Mets vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mets are 78-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 53-67 ATS.

Mets vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mets+1.5 -190O 8.5 -105+100
Yankees -1.5 +155U 8.5 -115-120

Mets vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Yankees vs Mets and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 42 games (+23.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+15.45 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 29 away games (+14.65 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 39 of his last 63 away games (+14.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+14.50 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 46 of his last 65 games at home (+15.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+13.80 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Josh Donaldson has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games (+10.20 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 124 games (+13.87 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 48 of their last 90 games (+5.50 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games (+2.95 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 67-54 against the Run Line (+15.6 Units / 10.61% ROI).

  • 78-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.7 Units / 11.25% ROI
  • 62-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.4 Units / 3.28% ROI
  • 52-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -11.86% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 53-67 against the Run Line (-15.95 Units / -11.48% ROI).

  • 74-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.07% ROI
  • 56-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.2 Units / -6.95% ROI
  • 59-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -1.93% ROI

Hitters have chased just 110 of Taijuan Walker’s 489 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 23%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 147 of Taijuan Walker’s 682 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 22%) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 32% — third Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 41% of Taijuan Walker’s breaking pitches (205/505) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 47% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .294 (139-for-472) against Taijuan Walker in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: .331 — 93rd Percentile.

Francelis Montas: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 34% (133/387) against Frankie Montas when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Frankie Montas has thrown his slider 29% of the time (364/1,270) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 86th Percentile.

The average home run distance against Frankie Montas this season is 407.1 feet — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 398.5

Opponents have a chase percentage of 28% (457/1,604) against Frankie Montas in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Mets are 28-5 (.848) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Mets are 68-5 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Mets are 59-5 (.922) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Mets are 68-3 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Yankees are 7-38 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Yankees are 31-28 (.525) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Yankees are 13-9 (.591) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Yankees are 11-5 (.688) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,268 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 64% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Mets hitters are slugging .825 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .501.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters are slugging .464 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of .748 (1,472 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .682.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of .752 (3,340 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have walked 813 of 10,363 batters (8%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Yankees pitchers have walked 198 of 3,053 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Yankees pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Yankees vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Achilles, D10
  • Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Harrison Bader (Yankees): Foot, D10
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Clayton Holmes (Yankees): Back, D15
  • Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D60
  • Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
  • Scott Effross (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Taijuan Walker (Mets): Back, Day-to-Day
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Eduardo Escobar (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.