- The Yankees are -155 favorites vs the Mets
- Mets starting pitcher: José Quintana
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodón
- Watch the game on YES
The New York Mets (+125) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-155) on Wednesday, July 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Mets vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mets are 47-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 52-49 ATS.
Mets vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 -105 | +125 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -115 | -155 |
Mets vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 66.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mets and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+16.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 44 games (+15.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+13.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 41 games (+12.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+12.10 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+14.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.25 Units / 45% ROI)
Yankees vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Yankees vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -115 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Yankees vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Carlos Rodon | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 90 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 71 games (+5.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 55 games at home (+4.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 39-61 against the Run Line (-30.85 Units / -24.05% ROI).
- 47-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.75 Units / -17.89% ROI
- 41-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.8 Units / -17.97% ROI
- 55-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.8 Units / 8.92% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 52-49 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 1.08% ROI).
- 53-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.17% ROI
- 45-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -12 Units / -10.85% ROI
- 52-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 1.97% ROI
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has not allowed a home run in any of the last 72.1 innings he’s appeared — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Jose Quintana has not allowed a HR in any of his last 13 starts dating back to August 10th, 2022 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Jose Quintana has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 56% (238/422) of right-handed hitters since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 66% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .319 (60-for-188) against Jose Quintana versus the bottom of the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .234 — first Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has a strikeout rate of 40% (107 SO in 271 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed an OPS of just .587 (775 PA’s) since last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .712 — 97th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed a slugging percentage of just .233 (61 Total Bases / 262 ABs) on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .373 — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .195 (185-for-950) against Carlos Rodon since the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 96th Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Mets are 129-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 3-11 (.214) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Mets are 129-7 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mets are just 32-16 (.667) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .782.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Yankees are 28-55 (.337) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Yankees are just 9-17 (.346) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 36-34 (.514) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .358.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 1,395 strikeouts in 6,917 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets have scored first in just 36% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .750 (5,321 PA’s) on the road since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Mets are batting just .222 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .215 with two outs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of just .298 (2,947 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 828 of their 3,700 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Yankees are batting just .230 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 64% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 59% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Yankees pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Yankees pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
The Yankees have allowed 1.10 runs per game (111/101) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.36.
Yankees vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Calf, D60
- Willie Calhoun (Yankees): Quad, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraine, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D15
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