- The Astros are -235 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Astros Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Astros TV Channel: MAS2 | SCHN
The Washington Nationals (+195) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-235) on Monday, July 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX, TX.
This season, the Nationals are 43-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-53 ATS.
Nationals vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Brad Lord 2-5, 3.46 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 11-4, 2.68 ERA
Nationals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 7.5 -105 | +195 |
| Astros | -1.5 -110 | U 7.5 -115 | -235 |
Nationals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB game with 66.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+13.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Zack Short has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+17.50 Units / 350% ROI)
- Cam Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- Cam Smith has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- Cam Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Cam Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 50% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 36 away games (+13.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+10.54 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 38 away games (+7.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games (+7.17 Units / 8% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 106 games (+18.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 71 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 73 games (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+7.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 98 games (+5.72 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 53-52 against the Run Line (-9.6 Units / -7.02% ROI).
- 43-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.77 Units / -8.75% ROI
- 54-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 2.03% ROI
- 47-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -10.62% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 53-53 against the Run Line (+1.07 Units / 0.8% ROI).
- 60-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 3.11% ROI
- 44-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.9 Units / -14.59% ROI
- 56-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.6 Units / 6.47% ROI
Astros vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Taylor Trammell (HOU) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1200 |
Astros vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Cam Smith (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Brady House (WAS) | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Astros vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Victor Caratini (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -115 |
| Brad Lord (WAS) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -118 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 34% (29/85) against Brad Lord since last season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Brad Lord has thrown 56% of his pitches in the strike zone (627/1,111) this season — tied for 9th best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 52% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (61/204) against Brad Lord since last season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Brad Lord has a in-zone of 52% (176/337) in two strike counts this season — tied for 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (209/343) against Framber Valdez this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (291/473) against Framber Valdez in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown his curveball 54% of the time (268/493) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (219/493) with two-strikes this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Nationals are just 9-23 (.281) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Astros (Ranks sixth runs allowed) today.
The Nationals are just 41-54 (.427) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 12-51 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Nationals are just 32-125 (.204) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Astros are 8-3 (.727) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros were just 5-13 (.278) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are just 2-96 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have put 46% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.69 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters are slugging .442 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have allowed 1.92 runs per game (202/105) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.32.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes this month (21 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.81 (220.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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