- The Nationals are +100 favorites vs the Astros
- Nationals vs Astros Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Astros TV Channel: MAS2 | SCHN
The Washington Nationals (+100) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-120) on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Nationals are 44-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 54-54 ATS.
Nationals vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 4-10, 3.56 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Ryan Gusto 6-4, 5.14 ERA
Nationals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 +100 | +100 |
| Astros | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -120 | -120 |
Nationals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Daylen Lile has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+14.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+12.00 Units / 171% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Zack Short has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games at home (+15.50 Units / 221% ROI)
- Cam Smith has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Cam Smith has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Cam Smith has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+8.15 Units / 102% ROI)
- Cam Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 38 away games (+12.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+10.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 91 games (+10.54 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 81 games (+9.17 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 40 away games (+8.30 Units / 21% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+18.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 73 games (+8.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+8.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 69 games (+7.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+6.17 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 54-53 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -7.55% ROI).
- 44-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.67 Units / -7.62% ROI
- 55-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.15 Units / 1.82% ROI
- 48-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.35 Units / -10.52% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 54-54 against the Run Line (+1.52 Units / 1.12% ROI).
- 61-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.85 Units / 1.98% ROI
- 45-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.1 Units / -14.47% ROI
- 57-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.5 Units / 6.27% ROI
Astros vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Astros vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Cam Smith (HOU) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Christian Walker (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Astros vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gusto (HOU) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .535 (23 GB hits out of 43 GBs) against MacKenzie Gore with runners on base this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .538 (14 GB hits out of 26 GBs) against MacKenzie Gore with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (282/492) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 29% (144 SO in 491 PAs) this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 90th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
91% of Ryan Gusto’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this month (5 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .310 (66-for-213) against Ryan Gusto at home this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .240 — fourth Percentile.
Ryan Gusto has an ERA of 6.35 (51.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 3.68 — third Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .318 (50-for-157) against Ryan Gusto this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .246 — third Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Nationals are just 10-24 (.294) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season They play the Astros (Ranks seventh runs allowed) today.
The Nationals are just 43-63 (.402) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 42-55 (.429) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 26-36 (.419) after a loss this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Astros were just 0-56 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 2-97 (.020) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Astros are 57-17 (.770) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Astros are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .361 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 40% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Nationals hitters had an OBP of just .285 (819 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters averaged just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have put 46% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.69 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters have put just 29% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .287 against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have allowed 1.90 runs per game (203/107) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.33.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
More MLB Reading:
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
