- The Astros are -250 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Washington Nationals (+200) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-250) on Wednesday, June 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Nationals vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 26-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 35-32 ATS.
Nationals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +100 | O 7.5 -105 | +200 |
| Astros | -1.5 -120 | U 7.5 -115 | -250 |
Nationals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 74.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 45 games (+16.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+14.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+11.15 Units / 14% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+11.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 41 games (+10.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Astros vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Astros vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
Astros vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 32 away games (+11.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 31 away games (+6.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 away games (+4.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 31 away games (+3.95 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 36 games (+12.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+8.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.30 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 37-28 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 6.99% ROI).
- 26-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 1.97% ROI
- 29-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -8.69% ROI
- 32-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.6 Units / 0.84% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 35-32 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.11% ROI).
- 38-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -1.26% ROI
- 32-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.65 Units / -7.63% ROI
- 34-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -1.5% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
14 of Josiah Gray’s 45 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
14 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 37 of 311 batters (12%) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 25 of 157 left-handed batters (16%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — third Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (566/1,159) with two-strikes since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 52% of the time (172/334) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 66% (428/652) against Framber Valdez since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (134/222) against Framber Valdez this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Nationals are just 25-50 (.333) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Nationals are just 1-133 (.007) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Nationals are just 81-146 (.357) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Astros are just 1-5 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Astros are 32-12 (.727) after a home loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Astros are 62-12 (.838) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Astros are 57-28 (.671) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have 102 extra-base hits out of 371 total hits (just 28%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have 167 extra-base hits out of 578 total hits (just 29%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have just 133 strikeouts in 790 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 318 strikeouts in 1,653 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 439 strikeouts in 2,512 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 819 strikeouts in 4,593 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have won 92% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Astros hitters have an OPS of .943 (170 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% versus the bottom of the order this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.16 (1009.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- Jeremy Peña (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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