- The Astros are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Washington Nationals (+160) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Thursday, June 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 26-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 35-33 ATS.
Nationals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | O 8 -110 | +160 |
| Astros | -1.5 +105 | U 8 -110 | -190 |
Nationals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 82.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+17.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+17.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 40 games (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+13.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 40 games (+12.15 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+9.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+9.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+8.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Astros vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Astros vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Cristian Javier | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 33 away games (+12.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 32 away games (+5.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 away games (+4.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 28 away games (+3.75 Units / 12% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 37 games (+13.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 33 games (+11.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+6.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 38-28 against the Run Line (+6.65 Units / 8.12% ROI).
- 26-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.45% ROI
- 30-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -7.2% ROI
- 32-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -0.76% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 35-33 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -1.18% ROI).
- 39-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -0.28% ROI
- 33-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -6.19% ROI
- 34-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -3.02% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .113 (7-for-62) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .145 (9 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .369 — 97th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to May 17th — Aaron Nola has the longest active streak at 10.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (188/617) against MacKenzie Gore this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 88th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 37% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (185/501) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 38% (114/302) against Cristian Javier this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .174 (23-for-132) against Cristian Javier this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 93rd Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .157 (58-for-370) against Cristian Javier since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Nationals are just 28-53 (.346) after a win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.
The Nationals are just 81-147 (.355) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 25-127 (.164) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Astros are just 1-5 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Astros are 145-85 (.630) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 25-16 (.610) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Astros are just 6-12 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.74 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have just 459 strikeouts in 2,479 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have 93 extra-base hits out of 349 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have 170 extra-base hits out of 585 total hits (just 29%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 819 strikeouts in 4,593 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have won 92% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Astros hitters have just 439 strikeouts in 2,512 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 61% on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 3% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Astros vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- Jeremy Peña (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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