- The Astros are -210 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin, 10.80 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia, 0.00 ERA
The Washington Nationals (+170) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-210) on Sunday, March 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in West Palm Beach.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Nationals vs Astros Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Nationals are 2-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 4-2 ATS.
Nationals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 10 -120 | +170 |
| Astros | -1.5 -110 | U 10 +100 | -210 |
Nationals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 72.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tres Barrera has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.10 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- David Hensley has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Korey Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+2.95 Units / 37% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 81 away games (+12.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 away games (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 27 away games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 3-3 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -8.97% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.83% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 4-2 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 27.03% ROI).
- 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.1 Units / 27.45% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -37.96% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 29.13% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Division opponents batted .350 against Patrick Corbin (104-for-297) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of 1.047 (356 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .753 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .324 (73-for-225) against Patrick Corbin’s non-fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .226 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (654/1,506) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 94th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Garcia allowed a slugging percentage of .822 (60 Total Bases / 73 ABs) on low fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.
Luis Garcia has averaged 79.3 MPH on sliders since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 85.2 — fourth Percentile.
Luis Garcia allowed an OBP of just .203 (128 PA’s) with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
The last hit on a Luis Garcia breaking pitch was September 19th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 17 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Drew VerHagen has the longest active streak at 21.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 55-90 (.379) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 12-81 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals hitters had 63 extra-base hits out of 242 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters slugged just .488 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Nationals hitters are slugging .233 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.73 (734.0 IP) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Astros vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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