Nationals vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 10, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Braves (51-35) are -225 favorites vs the Nationals (30-57)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-2), 3.32 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Ian Anderson (7-5), 5.09 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Washington Nationals (+175) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 30-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 45-41 ATS.

Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -105O 10 -115+175
Braves -1.5 -115U 10 -105-225

Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 53.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 27 away games (+16.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.85 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 38 away games (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 47 of his last 72 games (+25.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 48 of his last 71 games (+17.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+16.60 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 44 of his last 74 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 45 of his last 72 games (+14.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Matt Olson 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 1.5 +150 1.5 -200
Dansby Swanson 1.5 +140 1.5 -200
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -300 0.5 +210
Matt Olson 1.5 +145 1.5 -200
Michael Harris 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -115 0.5 -115
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -110 0.5 -125
Matt Olson 0.5 -125 0.5 -110

Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ian Anderson 3.5 -145 3.5 +100
Paolo Espino 3.5 +115 3.5 -160
Paolo Espino 2.5 -200 2.5 +140
Ian Anderson 2.5 -185 2.5 +130
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 74 games (+14.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 away games (+1.95 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 16 away games (+0.60 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 60 games (+23.17 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 36 games (+15.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 53 games (+11.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 78 games (+8.20 Units / 8% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 36-51 against the Run Line (-23.1 Units / -21.38% ROI).

  • 30-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.85 Units / -19.57% ROI
  • 43-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.05 Units / -1.09% ROI
  • 40-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -7.09% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 45-41 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 0.59% ROI).

  • 51-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 2.01% ROI
  • 42-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -3% ROI
  • 41-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -5.5% ROI

Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.056 (19 Total Bases / 18 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .387 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (67/352) against Paolo Espino this season — tied for 13th lowest among among 229 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .556 (10-for-18) against Paolo Espino on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .262 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (39/217) against Paolo Espino in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.

Ian Anderson: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ian Anderson has allowed an OBP of .474 (78 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .315 — 0 Percentile.

Ian Anderson has an average spin rate of 1899.8 RPM on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 2216.4 — second Percentile.

Ian Anderson has an average spin rate of 1859.4 RPM on curveballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 2512.7 — first Percentile.

Ian Anderson has a strikeout rate of just 10% (8 SO in 83 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 21% — third Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals are just 9-52 (.148) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Nationals are just 30-50 (.375) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

The Nationals are just 6-27 (.182) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

The Nationals are just 4-48 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .111.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves are 34-5 (.872) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Braves are 29-18 (.617) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .520.

The Braves are 29-9 (.763) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Nationals hitters have just 579 strikeouts in 2,907 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 244 double plays in 1,842 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals have grounded 86 double plays this season — most in MLB.

Nationals hitters have 63 extra-base hits out of 234 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .728 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .567.

Braves hitters have 223 extra-base hits out of 521 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters have 95 extra-base hits out of 212 total hits (45%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .446 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.84 (353.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Nationals have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.