- The Braves (51-35) are -225 favorites vs the Nationals (30-57)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-2), 3.32 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Ian Anderson (7-5), 5.09 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+175) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 30-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 45-41 ATS.
Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -105 | O 10 -115 | +175 |
| Braves | -1.5 -115 | U 10 -105 | -225 |
Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 53.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 27 away games (+16.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.85 Units / 93% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 38 away games (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 47 of his last 72 games (+25.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 48 of his last 71 games (+17.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+16.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 44 of his last 74 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 45 of his last 72 games (+14.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Dansby Swanson | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -200 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +210 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -200 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -165 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Anderson | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +100 |
| Paolo Espino | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -160 |
| Paolo Espino | 2.5 -200 | 2.5 +140 |
| Ian Anderson | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 74 games (+14.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 away games (+1.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 16 away games (+0.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 60 games (+23.17 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 36 games (+15.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 53 games (+11.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.60 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 78 games (+8.20 Units / 8% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 36-51 against the Run Line (-23.1 Units / -21.38% ROI).
- 30-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.85 Units / -19.57% ROI
- 43-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.05 Units / -1.09% ROI
- 40-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -7.09% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 45-41 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 0.59% ROI).
- 51-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 2.01% ROI
- 42-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -3% ROI
- 41-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -5.5% ROI
Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.056 (19 Total Bases / 18 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .387 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% (67/352) against Paolo Espino this season — tied for 13th lowest among among 229 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .556 (10-for-18) against Paolo Espino on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .262 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (39/217) against Paolo Espino in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Ian Anderson: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ian Anderson has allowed an OBP of .474 (78 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .315 — 0 Percentile.
Ian Anderson has an average spin rate of 1899.8 RPM on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 2216.4 — second Percentile.
Ian Anderson has an average spin rate of 1859.4 RPM on curveballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 2512.7 — first Percentile.
Ian Anderson has a strikeout rate of just 10% (8 SO in 83 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 21% — third Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are just 9-52 (.148) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 30-50 (.375) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 6-27 (.182) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Nationals are just 4-48 (.077) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .111.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 34-5 (.872) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Braves are 29-18 (.617) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Braves are 29-9 (.763) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Braves are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 579 strikeouts in 2,907 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 244 double plays in 1,842 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals have grounded 86 double plays this season — most in MLB.
Nationals hitters have 63 extra-base hits out of 234 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .728 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .567.
Braves hitters have 223 extra-base hits out of 521 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters have 95 extra-base hits out of 212 total hits (45%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .446 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.84 (353.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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