Nationals vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 09, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (50-35) are -225 favorites vs the Nationals (30-56)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (4-10), 5.68 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (9-4), 2.90 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Washington Nationals (+175) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 30-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 45-40 ATS.

Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -110O 9.5 -115+175
Braves -1.5 -110U 9.5 -105-225

Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 62.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 26 away games (+15.70 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 37 away games (+6.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+5.85 Units / 79% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 47 of his last 71 games (+26.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+17.60 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 44 of his last 73 games (+17.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 70 games (+16.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 45 of his last 71 games (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)

Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Matt Olson 0.5 +300 0.5 -500

Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 1.5 +160 1.5 -250
Dansby Swanson 1.5 +145 1.5 -200
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Matt Olson 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -110 0.5 -125
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +105 0.5 -145
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Matt Olson 0.5 +105 0.5 -145

Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Wright 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Patrick Corbin 3.5 -175 3.5 +125
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games (+14.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 65 games (+6.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 15 away games (+1.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 away games (+0.95 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 59 games (+22.17 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 35 games (+14.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 52 games (+10.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 77 games (+9.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.60 Units / 44% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 35-51 against the Run Line (-24.1 Units / -22.51% ROI).

  • 30-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.85 Units / -18.68% ROI
  • 43-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • 39-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -8.24% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 45-40 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 1.7% ROI).

  • 50-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 1.3% ROI
  • 42-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.8 Units / -1.92% ROI
  • 40-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -6.64% ROI

Opponents are hitting .309 (117-for-379) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .322 (199 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — first Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .365 (414 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .233 (41-for-176) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — second Percentile.

Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Wright has allowed a slugging percentage of just .309 (108 Total Bases / 350 ABs) this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .385 — 92nd Percentile.

Kyle Wright has allowed a slugging percentage of just .246 (49 Total Bases / 199 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .355 — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (133/254) against Kyle Wright this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 94th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (78/132) against Kyle Wright this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals are just 14-31 (.311) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Nationals are just 9-51 (.150) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 100-22 (.820) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Nationals are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves are 28-18 (.609) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Braves are 29-9 (.763) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Braves are just 42-7 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Braves are 34-5 (.872) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 242 double plays in 1,834 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters have just 685 strikeouts in 3,487 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,897 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 39 double plays in 298 opportunities (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Braves hitters are slugging .733 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.

Braves hitters are slugging .507 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters are slugging .446 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Braves hitters have 222 extra-base hits out of 513 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.87 (345.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

The Nationals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.