- The Braves are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Braves starting pitcher: Jared Shuster
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Washington Nationals (+155) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-190) on Saturday, June 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 25-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 28-35 ATS.
Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Nationals | +1.5 -120 | O 9.5 -110 | +155 |
Braves | -1.5 +100 | U 9.5 -110 | -190 |
Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 79.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+16.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+14.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+13.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 42 games (+10.55 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+15.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+15.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+14.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Joey Meneses | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Alex Call | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Stone Garrett | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Matt Olson | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Joey Meneses | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
Alex Call | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Stone Garrett | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Matt Olson | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Joey Meneses | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Alex Call | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Stone Garrett | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Matt Olson | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jared Shuster | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
Mackenzie Gore | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 29 away games (+12.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 28 away games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 away games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 24 away games (+4.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+10.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+6.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.65 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 36-26 against the Run Line (+6.7 Units / 8.64% ROI).
- 25-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 1.51% ROI
- 28-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.1 Units / -7.43% ROI
- 30-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.44% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 28-35 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -8.86% ROI).
- 39-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 3.87% ROI
- 34-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.45 Units / 7.9% ROI
- 26-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -17.07% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .119 (7-for-59) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 97th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 29% (80 SO in 274 PAs) this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 90th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 37% (26 SO in 70 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 91st Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has struck out 43% (10/23) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jared Shuster has walked 19 of 130 batters (15%) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Jared Shuster has walked 8 of 38 batters (21%) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Jared Shuster has allowed a BABIP of .230 this season — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .296 — 95th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 44% of Jared Shuster’s pitches (209/478) this season — 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 48% — eighth Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals were just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals were just 0-98 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Nationals were just 26-22 (.542) when totaling 10 or more hits in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Nationals were just 55-90 (.379) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves were 21-15 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Braves were 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves were 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2022 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves were 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 33% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 97 extra-base hits out of 356 total hits (just 27%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have drawn 106 walks in 1,575 PA’s (7%) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have 159 extra-base hits out of 554 total hits (just 29%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .910 (619 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
Braves hitters are slugging .546 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Braves hitters are slugging .680 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Braves hitters are slugging .480 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Braves have won just 0% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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