Nationals vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 10

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 10, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
  • Braves starting pitcher: Jared Shuster
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Washington Nationals (+155) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-190) on Saturday, June 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Nationals are 25-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 28-35 ATS.

Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -120O 9.5 -110+155
Braves -1.5 +100U 9.5 -110-190

Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 79.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+16.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+14.75 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+13.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+13.00 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 42 games (+10.55 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+15.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+15.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+14.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 37 games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)

Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Meneses 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Alex Call 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Stone Garrett 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Matt Olson 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Meneses 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Alex Call 0.5 -185 0.5 +140
Stone Garrett 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Matt Olson 0.5 -185 0.5 +140
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Meneses 0.5 +130 0.5 -175
Alex Call 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Stone Garrett 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Matt Olson 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 +135 0.5 -175

Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jared Shuster 3.5 -135 3.5 +100
Mackenzie Gore 6.5 +120 6.5 -160
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 29 away games (+12.45 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.45 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 28 away games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 away games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 24 away games (+4.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+10.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 63 games (+6.25 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.65 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.05 Units / 18% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 36-26 against the Run Line (+6.7 Units / 8.64% ROI).

  • 25-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 1.51% ROI
  • 28-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.1 Units / -7.43% ROI
  • 30-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.44% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 28-35 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -8.86% ROI).

  • 39-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 3.87% ROI
  • 34-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.45 Units / 7.9% ROI
  • 26-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -17.07% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .119 (7-for-59) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 97th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 29% (80 SO in 274 PAs) this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 90th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 37% (26 SO in 70 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 91st Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has struck out 43% (10/23) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jared Shuster has walked 19 of 130 batters (15%) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

Jared Shuster has walked 8 of 38 batters (21%) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.

Jared Shuster has allowed a BABIP of .230 this season — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .296 — 95th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 44% of Jared Shuster’s pitches (209/478) this season — 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 48% — eighth Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals were just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals were just 0-98 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.

The Nationals were just 26-22 (.542) when totaling 10 or more hits in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Nationals were just 55-90 (.379) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves were 21-15 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Braves were 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves were 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2022 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves were 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 33% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have 97 extra-base hits out of 356 total hits (just 27%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals hitters have drawn 106 walks in 1,575 PA’s (7%) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Nationals hitters have 159 extra-base hits out of 554 total hits (just 29%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .910 (619 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .748.

Braves hitters are slugging .546 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.

Braves hitters are slugging .680 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.

Braves hitters are slugging .480 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

The Braves have won just 0% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
  • Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.