- The Braves are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Washington Nationals (+225) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-275) on Sunday, June 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 25-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 29-35 ATS.
Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -130 | O 9.5 -115 | +225 |
| Braves | -2.5 +110 | U 9.5 -105 | -275 |
Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 77.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+15.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+14.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+14.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+9.60 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+16.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+16.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+15.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+11.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 49 games (+11.55 Units / 16% ROI)
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -190 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Austin Riley | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
| Bryce Elder | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 29 away games (+5.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 29 away games (+3.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.70 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 57% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 36-27 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 6.92% ROI).
- 25-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.08% ROI
- 29-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -5.88% ROI
- 30-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -2.03% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 29-35 against the Run Line (-5.5 Units / -7.34% ROI).
- 40-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.9 Units / 4.77% ROI
- 35-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.45 Units / 9.21% ROI
- 26-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -13 Units / -18.36% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (511/1,011) of the time since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (215/420) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown fastballs 72% of the time (145/202) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams struck out just 9% (13/148) of left-handed batters he faced in 2022 — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has located his fastballs down 47% of the time (251/533) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 64% (72/112) against Bryce Elder this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .157 (22-for-140) against Bryce Elder’s non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (111/199) against Bryce Elder this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 94th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are just 25-125 (.167) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Nationals are just 80-145 (.356) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 15-28 (.349) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Nationals are just 28-52 (.350) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 33-21 (.611) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Braves are 6-19 (.240) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Braves are 12-6 (.667) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .480.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 133 strikeouts in 790 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 33% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have drawn 106 walks in 1,584 PA’s (7%) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have just 441 strikeouts in 2,374 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .550 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .910 (639 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .747.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .818 (2,277 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Braves hitters are slugging .678 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Braves have won just 0% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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