Nationals vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 9

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 09, 2023, 3:32 PM
  • The Braves are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
  • Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Washington Nationals (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on Friday, June 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Nationals are 25-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 28-34 ATS.

Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -110O 10.5 -115+165
Braves -1.5 -110U 10.5 -105-200

Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 82.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Nationals vs Braves and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+15.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+14.25 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+13.85 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+12.00 Units / 37% ROI)

Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Alex Call 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Matt Olson 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Sean Murphy 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000

Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 -225 0.5 +175
Alex Call 0.5 -160 0.5 +125
Matt Olson 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Sean Murphy 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eddie Rosario 0.5 +130 0.5 -175
Alex Call 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Matt Olson 0.5 +100 0.5 -135
Sean Murphy 0.5 +125 0.5 -165
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +185 0.5 -250

Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josiah Gray 4.5 +105 4.5 -135
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 28 away games (+11.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 27 away games (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 away games (+5.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+7.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.75 Units / 94% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.05 Units / 55% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 35-26 against the Run Line (+5.7 Units / 7.46% ROI).

  • 25-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 3.15% ROI
  • 28-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -5.78% ROI
  • 29-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -1.94% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 28-34 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -7.48% ROI).

  • 38-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 2.94% ROI
  • 34-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.65 Units / 9.82% ROI
  • 25-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -18.78% ROI

Josiah Gray has allowed a .477 SLG vs right-handed batters (eighth worst)– 13th Percentile and just .301 vs left-handed batters this season (eighth best among qualified SPs)– 87th Percentile.

13 of Josiah Gray’s 39 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.

13 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.

Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 59% (363/612) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Garrett Whitlock walked 4 of 130 left-handed batters (3%) in 2022 — 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.

Garrett Whitlock allowed an OBP of just .215 (130 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .306 — 94th Percentile.

Garrett Whitlock allowed an OBP of just .188 (80 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — tied for 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .292 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents batted just .135 (13-for-96) against Garrett Whitlock in close and late situations in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 97th Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals are just 25-123 (.169) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Nationals are just 1-130 (.008) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.

The Nationals are just 13-24 (.351) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.

The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves are 33-21 (.611) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.

The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.

The Braves are 11-8 (.579) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Braves are 12-6 (.667) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .474.

Nationals hitters have 96 extra-base hits out of 350 total hits (just 27%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals hitters have just 133 strikeouts in 764 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.71 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Braves hitters are slugging .546 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .910 (619 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .747.

Braves hitters are slugging .472 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.

Braves hitters are slugging .451 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
  • Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
  • Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60

Bet now on Nationals vs Braves and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.