- The Braves are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Washington Nationals (+165) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-200) on Friday, June 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 25-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 28-34 ATS.
Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 10.5 -115 | +165 |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | U 10.5 -105 | -200 |
Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 82.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+15.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+14.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+14.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+13.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+13.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+12.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 28 away games (+11.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 27 away games (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 away games (+5.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+7.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.75 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.05 Units / 55% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 35-26 against the Run Line (+5.7 Units / 7.46% ROI).
- 25-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 3.15% ROI
- 28-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -5.78% ROI
- 29-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -1.94% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 28-34 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -7.48% ROI).
- 38-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 2.94% ROI
- 34-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.65 Units / 9.82% ROI
- 25-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -18.78% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a .477 SLG vs right-handed batters (eighth worst)– 13th Percentile and just .301 vs left-handed batters this season (eighth best among qualified SPs)– 87th Percentile.
13 of Josiah Gray’s 39 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
13 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 59% (363/612) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock walked 4 of 130 left-handed batters (3%) in 2022 — 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock allowed an OBP of just .215 (130 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .306 — 94th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock allowed an OBP of just .188 (80 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — tied for 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .292 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .135 (13-for-96) against Garrett Whitlock in close and late situations in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 97th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are just 25-123 (.169) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Nationals are just 1-130 (.008) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Nationals are just 13-24 (.351) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 33-21 (.611) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Braves are 11-8 (.579) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Braves are 12-6 (.667) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .474.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have 96 extra-base hits out of 350 total hits (just 27%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have just 133 strikeouts in 764 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.71 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .546 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .910 (619 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .747.
Braves hitters are slugging .472 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Braves hitters are slugging .451 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 17% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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