- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Braves Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Nationals / Braves TV Channel: MASN | FDSO | FDSE | MLBN
The Washington Nationals (+170) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-210) on Thursday, May 15, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Nationals are 18-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 18-25 ATS.
Nationals vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 2-4, 5.88 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: AJ Smith-Shawver 2-2, 2.76 ERA
Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 9 -118 | +170 |
| Braves | -1.5 -105 | U 9 -102 | -210 |
Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 65.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 58% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.55 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+11.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Eli White has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+10.05 Units / 63% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+2.70 Units / 38% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+7.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+5.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.05 Units / 40% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 21-23 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -10.33% ROI).
- 18-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.87 Units / -10.48% ROI
- 21-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.65 Units / -3.43% ROI
- 21-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -4.31% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 18-25 against the Run Line (-7.52 Units / -14.8% ROI).
- 21-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.03 Units / -15.36% ROI
- 16-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -19.5% ROI
- 23-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.55 Units / 11.82% ROI
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Trevor Williams (WAS) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .396 (38-for-96) against Trevor Williams this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — second Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a just .247 SLG vs right-handed batters (tied for fifth best)– 95th Percentile and .625 vs left-handed batters this season (second worst among qualified SPs)– second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 29% (30/103) against Trevor Williams on changeups this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed an OPS of 1.060 (108 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .711 — third Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
AJ Smith-Shawver has walked 16% of right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against AJ Smith-Shawver when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
AJ Smith-Shawver has walked 24% of batters with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order are hitless (0-for-17) against AJ Smith-Shawver in his last two starts — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 52-87 (.374) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Braves (15th best runs scored) today.
The Nationals are just 26-94 (.217) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Nationals are just 88-117 (.427) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 4-17 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Braves are 23-126 (.154) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .098.
The Braves are 74-60 (.552) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season They play the Nationals (25th best runs scored) today.
The Braves were just 7-42 (.143) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters struck out just 1,149 times in 6,085 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals are batting just .243 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Nationals hitters struck out just 809 times in 4,217 PA’s (19%) against RHP in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters slugged .751 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (4,824 PA’s) against RHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals have allowed 2.23 runs per game (98/44) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.36.
Nationals pitchers allowed an OBP of .372 (1,428 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 46% of the time since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 43% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Batters facing the Braves pitchers have struck out in the zone 45% of the time since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%. since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
More MLB Reading:
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