- The Braves (91-55) are -350 favorites vs the Nationals (51-95)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Cory Abbott (0-2), 4.37 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (18-5), 3.18 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+260) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-350) on Monday, September 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-105).
The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 50-93 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 75-68 ATS.
Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -115 | O 8 -105 | +260 |
| Braves | -2.5 -105 | U 8 -115 | -350 |
Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s matchup with 69.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 39 away games (+25.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 40 away games (+20.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 40 away games (+16.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+13.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 71 of his last 96 games (+25.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 39 of his last 55 games (+21.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 52 games at home (+19.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 77 of his last 134 games (+17.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+17.55 Units / 98% ROI)
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dansby Swanson | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ronald Acuna | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Travis D'Arnaud | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Wright | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
| Cory Abbott | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+12.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 72 away games (+11.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+4.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games (+3.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.95 Units / 37% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 68 games at home (+15.42 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 69 games at home (+7.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 63-80 against the Run Line (-24.25 Units / -13.98% ROI).
- 50-93 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.9 Units / -10.71% ROI
- 70-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -0.91% ROI
- 65-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -7.22% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 75-68 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.55% ROI).
- 89-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +12 Units / 4.96% ROI
- 71-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.55 Units / 0.35% ROI
- 64-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -8.87% ROI
Cory Abbott: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (8/33) against Cory Abbott this month (5 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Cory Abbott has thrown breaking pitches 53% of the time (51/97) vs left-handed batters this month (5 games) — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 94th Percentile.
Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (133/217) against Kyle Wright this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has induced opposing hitters to ground into 25 double plays in 123 opportunities (20%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has induced opposing hitters to ground into 25 double plays in 132 opportunities (19%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (94/165) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are just 15-82 (.155) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 24-50 (.324) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 10-181 (.052) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Nationals are just 8-80 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 81-18 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Braves are 33-4 (.892) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 47 double plays in 375 opportunities (12%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 287 double plays in 2,244 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .668 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Braves hitters are slugging .627 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters have 265 extra-base hits out of 658 total hits (40%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters are slugging .487 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .268 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.44 (603.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 32% against Braves pitchers this month (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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