Nationals vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 20

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 20, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (92-55) are -300 favorites vs the Nationals (51-96)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (6-18), 6.10 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (8-6), 4.16 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSO

The Washington Nationals (+240) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-300) on Tuesday, September 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).

The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 50-94 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 76-68 ATS.

Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+2.5 -120O 8.5 -115+240
Braves -2.5 +100U 8.5 -105-300

Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Nationals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 40 away games (+26.15 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 41 away games (+21.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 41 away games (+17.80 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 38 games (+14.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 72 of his last 97 games (+26.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 39 of his last 56 games (+20.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 53 games at home (+20.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 77 of his last 135 games (+16.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+16.55 Units / 87% ROI)

Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Matt Olson 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Michael Harris 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Ronald Acuna 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Dansby Swanson 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Matt Olson 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Michael Harris 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Ronald Acuna 1.5 +160 1.5 -250

Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Matt Olson 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Michael Harris 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Ronald Acuna 0.5 +125 0.5 -175

Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Charlie Morton 6.5 -135 6.5 -105
Patrick Corbin 3.5 -145 3.5 +100
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 73 away games (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 15 games (+3.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.95 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 17 games (+2.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 69 games at home (+16.42 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+7.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 70 games at home (+6.95 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 66% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 63-81 against the Run Line (-25.25 Units / -14.47% ROI).

  • 50-94 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.9 Units / -11.31% ROI
  • 70-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -1.63% ROI
  • 66-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -6.54% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 76-68 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 90-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +13 Units / 5.29% ROI
  • 71-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -0.38% ROI
  • 65-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -8.17% ROI

Opponents are hitting .251 (74-for-295) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — third Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .431 (181 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .305 — second Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .330 (330 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — first Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .686 (330 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .470 — third Percentile.

Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (61/182) against Charlie Morton with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Charlie Morton has a strike rate of just 63% (832/1,322) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — sixth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (386/662) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 31% (181/591) against Charlie Morton this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 86th Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals are just 24-50 (.324) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Nationals are just 51-81 (.386) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Nationals are just 15-83 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 8-81 (.090) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 82-18 (.820) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Braves are 34-4 (.895) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .666.

The Braves are 64-9 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 47 double plays in 375 opportunities (12%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Nationals have scored first in just 27% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,666 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Braves hitters are slugging .666 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .561.

Braves hitters are slugging .498 against RHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .758 (8,576 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Braves hitters are slugging .444 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.44 (603.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .268 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .219.

Nationals pitchers have walked 509 of 5,626 batters (9%) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (15 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).

Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Nationals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.