- The Braves (92-55) are -300 favorites vs the Nationals (51-96)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (6-18), 6.10 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (8-6), 4.16 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSO
The Washington Nationals (+240) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-300) on Tuesday, September 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).
The Nationals vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 50-94 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 76-68 ATS.
Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -120 | O 8.5 -115 | +240 |
| Braves | -2.5 +100 | U 8.5 -105 | -300 |
Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 40 away games (+26.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 41 away games (+21.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 41 away games (+17.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 38 games (+14.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 72 of his last 97 games (+26.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 39 of his last 56 games (+20.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 53 games at home (+20.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 77 of his last 135 games (+16.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+16.55 Units / 87% ROI)
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Dansby Swanson | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ronald Acuna | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -250 |
Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ronald Acuna | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 -105 |
| Patrick Corbin | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 73 away games (+12.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 15 games (+3.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 17 games (+2.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 69 games at home (+16.42 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+7.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 70 games at home (+6.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 66% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 63-81 against the Run Line (-25.25 Units / -14.47% ROI).
- 50-94 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.9 Units / -11.31% ROI
- 70-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -1.63% ROI
- 66-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -6.54% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 76-68 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 90-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +13 Units / 5.29% ROI
- 71-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -0.38% ROI
- 65-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -8.17% ROI
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .251 (74-for-295) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .431 (181 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .305 — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .330 (330 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .686 (330 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .470 — third Percentile.
Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (61/182) against Charlie Morton with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 153 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Charlie Morton has a strike rate of just 63% (832/1,322) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — sixth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (386/662) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 31% (181/591) against Charlie Morton this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 86th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are just 24-50 (.324) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 51-81 (.386) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 15-83 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 8-81 (.090) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 82-18 (.820) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Braves are 34-4 (.895) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
The Braves are 64-9 (.877) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 47 double plays in 375 opportunities (12%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Nationals have scored first in just 27% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,666 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .666 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .561.
Braves hitters are slugging .498 against RHP this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .758 (8,576 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Braves hitters are slugging .444 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.44 (603.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .268 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Nationals pitchers have walked 509 of 5,626 batters (9%) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (15 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Quad, D10
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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