- The Brewers are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Brewers TV Channel: MAS2 | FDWI
The Washington Nationals (+165) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-200) on Friday, July 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI, WI.
This season, the Nationals are 38-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 48-43 ATS.
Nationals vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mitchell Parker 5-9, 4.70 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Quinn Priester 6-2, 3.58 ERA
Nationals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -130 | O 8.5 -110 | +165 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -110 | -200 |
Nationals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 61.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+12.35 Units / 67% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.70 Units / 81% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+25.00 Units / 250% ROI)
- Isaac Collins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 73% ROI)
- Isaac Collins has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+11.50 Units / 75% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 39% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games (+11.84 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+9.02 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 32 away games (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 43 of their last 89 games (+17.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 47 games (+15.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+14.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 89 games (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 86 games (+9.44 Units / 9% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 46-47 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -8.36% ROI).
- 38-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.72 Units / -9.75% ROI
- 47-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 0.93% ROI
- 42-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -9.34% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 48-43 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -0.95% ROI).
- 53-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 8.92% ROI
- 37-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.85 Units / -21.21% ROI
- 53-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.4 Units / 12.19% ROI
Brewers vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Vaughn (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Brewers vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sal Frelick (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Isaac Collins (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Brewers vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Vaughn (MIL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Brewers vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 3.5 -118 | 3.5 -110 |
| Quinn Priester (MIL) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
13 of Mitchell Parker’s 33 breaking pitch strikeouts (39%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has allowed an OBP of .377 (162 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .295 (41-for-139) against Mitchell Parker when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — third Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 9% (9 SO in 98 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (22/147) against Quinn Priester this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (145/252) against Quinn Priester this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .205 (9-for-44) against Quinn Priester on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (14/105) against Quinn Priester’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are just 36-48 (.424) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 8-23 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .365.
The Nationals are just 37-55 (.398) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 11-45 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 77-51 (.602) at home since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Brewers are 53-14 (.791) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Brewers are 19-9 (.679) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 47-17 (.734) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 39% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .293 (1,228 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Nationals are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 28 extra-base hits out of 121 total hits (just 23%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .464 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .579.
Brewers hitters have 83 extra-base hits out of 303 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have allowed 1.94 runs per game (180/93) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.32.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Nationals have won just 17% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .289 against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 67% of the time over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 56% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 57% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 36% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
More MLB Reading:
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