- The Brewers are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jacob Irvin
- Brewers starting pitcher: Wade Miley
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Washington Nationals (+165) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-200) on Friday, September 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 65-82 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 71-75 ATS.
Nationals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -130 | O 8.5 -110 | +165 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -110 | -200 |
Nationals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 74.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+16.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+10.75 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+15.80 Units / 81% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+13.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+13.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Andruw Monasterio has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)
Brewers vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Brewers vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Brewers vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -165 |
| Jake Irvin | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 129 games (+21.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 73 away games (+14.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 away games (+8.83 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 78 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.83 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.73 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.68 Units / 23% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 79-68 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 0.39% ROI).
- 65-82 when betting on the Moneyline for +17 Units / 11.28% ROI
- 70-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -3.78% ROI
- 69-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.5 Units / -4.66% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 71-75 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -4.14% ROI).
- 82-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 4.61% ROI
- 66-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.15 Units / -10.6% ROI
- 75-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 1.66% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .457 (21-for-46) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene threw 482 fastballs at 100+ MPH in 2022 — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has averaged 98.9 MPH on fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene had an average fastball velocity of 99.0 MPH in 2022 — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 52% of the time (266/510) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 52% of the time (216/415) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has thrown his cutter 44% of the time (194/440) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total CUT; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (61/339) against Wade Miley since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are just 37-63 (.370) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 44-75 (.370) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 36-160 (.184) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Nationals are just 114-164 (.410) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 18-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Brewers are 18-36 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Brewers are 21-9 (.700) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Brewers are 43-29 (.597) at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .519.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have just 1,040 strikeouts in 5,510 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,542 strikeouts in 7,811 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 718 strikeouts in 3,760 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 114 extra-base hits out of 442 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have 765 strikeouts in 3,046 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .356 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.84 (1298.2 IP) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents are hitting just .227 against Brewers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Corbin Burnes (Brewers): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Christian Yelich (Brewers): Back, Day-to-Day
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Mark Canha (Brewers): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Finger, D15
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Riley Adams (Nationals): Wrist, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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