- The Brewers are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Washington Nationals (+220) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-275) on Saturday, September 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Nationals vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 65-83 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 72-75 ATS.
Nationals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +110 | O 8 -110 | +220 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -135 | U 8 -110 | -275 |
Nationals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 85.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.85 Units / 71% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+11.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+10.70 Units / 110% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+16.85 Units / 82% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+14.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+14.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 45 games (+9.95 Units / 21% ROI)
Brewers vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Brewers vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Trevor Williams | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 79-69 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.33% ROI).
- 65-83 when betting on the Moneyline for +16 Units / 10.54% ROI
- 70-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -4.43% ROI
- 70-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -4.01% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 72-75 against the Run Line (-6.55 Units / -3.53% ROI).
- 83-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.55 Units / 5.1% ROI
- 66-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.25 Units / -11.21% ROI
- 76-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 2.27% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 50% (871/1,729) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 51% (240/473) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 50% (372/738) on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Trevor Williams’ breaking pitches (219/630) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 62% of the time (941/1,523) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (465/783) since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (149/253) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown his cutter 43% of the time (350/815) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total CUT; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are just 37-63 (.370) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Nationals are just 36-161 (.183) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Nationals are just 20-33 (.377) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 59-40 (.596) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Brewers are 18-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Brewers are 16-9 (.640) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 18-36 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Brewers are 21-9 (.700) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 115 extra-base hits out of 446 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
The Brewers are batting just .234 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Brewers are batting just .243 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 2.43 (118.1 IP) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.59.
The Brewers have allowed 2.85 runs per game (37/13) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.89.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 1.36 (66.1 IP) over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Corbin Burnes (Brewers): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Finger, D15
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Riley Adams (Nationals): Wrist, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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