- The Brewers are -300 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Washington Nationals (+230) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-300) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+115).
The Nationals vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 65-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 73-75 ATS.
Nationals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -140 | O 8 -120 | +230 |
| Brewers | -2.5 +115 | U 8 +100 | -300 |
Nationals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 84.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 20 away games (+17.85 Units / 71% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+11.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.60 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+17.85 Units / 83% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+15.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+15.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
Brewers vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Brewers vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Brewers vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 79-70 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -0.88% ROI).
- 65-84 when betting on the Moneyline for +15 Units / 9.82% ROI
- 71-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -3.79% ROI
- 70-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.6 Units / -4.65% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 73-75 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -2.97% ROI).
- 84-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.55 Units / 5.55% ROI
- 67-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.25 Units / -10.52% ROI
- 76-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.55 Units / 1.58% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .827 (726 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .704 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .294 (195-for-663) against Patrick Corbin this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — third Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .300 (164-for-546) against Patrick Corbin this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — sixth Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .845 (595 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .690 — fourth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .226 (19-for-84) against Brandon Woodruff on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: .343 — 99th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 22.0 innings pitched — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Brandon Woodruff has allowed an OPS of just .341 (57 PA’s) — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .684 — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has allowed an OBP of just .184 (495 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: .241 — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Nationals are just 37-63 (.370) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Nationals are just 59-40 (.596) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Nationals are just 36-161 (.183) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Nationals are just 44-75 (.370) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
keys to the game – home
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 722 strikeouts in 3,723 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 325 strikeouts in 1,776 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,059 strikeouts in 5,583 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals are just 2-12 (.143) against the run line (-63.6% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .240 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 5 of 119 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have walked 2 of 67 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers pitchers have 195 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Brewers vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Finger, D15
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Riley Adams (Nationals): Wrist, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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