- The Cardinals are -140 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Cardinals TV Channel: FDMW | MASN
The Washington Nationals (+115) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-140) on Thursday, July 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Nationals are 38-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 51-42 ATS.
Nationals vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Mike Soroka 3-6, 5.41 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas 4-6, 5.24 ERA
Nationals vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -120 | +115 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +150 | U 9 +100 | -140 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Amed Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+22.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+13.70 Units / 342% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+11.15 Units / 67% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 61% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 34% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 29 away games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+10.84 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 31 away games (+8.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 66 games (+8.02 Units / 10% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 70 games (+9.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+8.07 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+7.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+4.85 Units / 14% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 46-46 against the Run Line (-8.45 Units / -7.09% ROI).
- 38-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.72 Units / -8.83% ROI
- 47-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.95 Units / 0.94% ROI
- 42-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -9.44% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 51-42 against the Run Line (+3.9 Units / 3.12% ROI).
- 49-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 3.46% ROI
- 48-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 2.73% ROI
- 41-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.85 Units / -11.59% ROI
Cardinals vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nolan Gorman (STL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Masyn Winn (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brady House (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Bell (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Cardinals vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Lars Nootbaar (STL) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Soroka (WAS) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Miles Mikolas (STL) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Soroka has allowed a slugging percentage of .632 (36 Total Bases / 57 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .363 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (16/111) against Mike Soroka’s fastball this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Mike Soroka has allowed a slugging percentage of just .127 (8 Total Bases / 63 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (74/386) against Mike Soroka since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 14% (74/529) against Miles Mikolas in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Miles Mikolas has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.036 (29 Total Bases / 28 ABs) over the past seven days (1 game) — highest among NL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .420 — second Percentile.
Miles Mikolas allowed a slugging percentage of .558 (189 Total Bases / 339 ABs) on non-fastballs in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .356 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .277 (115-for-415) against Miles Mikolas when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — seventh Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Nationals are just 36-47 (.429) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 31-118 (.208) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
The Nationals are just 11-44 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 37-54 (.402) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cardinals are 40-1 (.976) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Cardinals are 116-3 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Cardinals are 104-5 (.954) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .903.
The Cardinals are just 12-37 (.245) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Nationals are batting .231 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Nationals hitters are slugging .234 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Nationals are batting .192 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have struck out in just 20% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals hitters struck out just 351 times in 1,755 PA’s (20%) against LHP in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals hitters have missed on just 23% of swings this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals hitters have 46 extra-base hits out of 107 total hits (43%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have allowed 1.95 runs per game (179/92) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.32.
Nationals pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 59% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.81 (220.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Cardinals pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 47% of the time this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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