- The Cardinals are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Washington Nationals (+150) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-185) on Friday, July 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Nationals vs Cardinals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 36-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 43-47 ATS.
Nationals vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -135 | O 9 +100 | +150 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +110 | U 9 -120 | -185 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 75.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 15 away games (+15.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+12.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+8.90 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+16.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+11.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jordan Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 14 games at home (+7.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+7.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Cardinals vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Luis Garcia | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| C.J. Abrams | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -190 |
Cardinals vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
| Trevor Williams | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 43 away games (+16.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 42 away games (+15.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 away games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 away games (+5.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+3.90 Units / 49% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+7.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+6.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+3.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.65 Units / 34% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 50-40 against the Run Line (+4.9 Units / 4.45% ROI).
- 36-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 4.21% ROI
- 41-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -7.6% ROI
- 44-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.25% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 43-47 against the Run Line (-8.3 Units / -7.08% ROI).
- 38-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.55 Units / -23.72% ROI
- 43-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.2 Units / -5.26% ROI
- 44-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -3.23% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .635 (202 Total Bases / 318 ABs) on fastballs since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: .431 — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (249/439) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — seventh Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 61% (1,071/1,741) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
16 of Josiah Gray’s 62 breaking pitch strikeouts (26%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 93rd Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (51/325) against Miles Mikolas this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (31/207) against Miles Mikolas with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .249 (55-for-221) against Miles Mikolas with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .166 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (142/878) against Miles Mikolas this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Nationals are just 13-27 (.325) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Nationals are just 1-147 (.007) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Nationals are just 7-16 (.304) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Nationals are just 30-139 (.178) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cardinals are just 29-5 (.853) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Cardinals are just 26-6 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Cardinals are 26-7 (.788) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 27-10 (.730) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 633 strikeouts in 3,377 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Nationals hitters have just 606 strikeouts in 3,073 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 40% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .734 (2,993 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
The Cardinals are just 29-5 (.853) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .782 (2,158 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals have won just 19% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Andrew Knizner (Cardinals): Groin, D10
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Jordan Montgomery (Cardinals): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Edman (Cardinals): Wrist, D10
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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