- The Cardinals are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Washington Nationals (+145) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-175) on Sunday, July 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Nationals vs Cardinals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 37-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 44-48 ATS.
Nationals vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -135 | O 9.5 -120 | +145 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +110 | U 9.5 +100 | -175 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 76.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+19.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+16.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 33 games (+13.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+11.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+11.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.40 Units / 67% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+10.35 Units / 40% ROI)
Cardinals vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Cardinals vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Jack Flaherty | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -185 |
| Jack Flaherty | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +130 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 away games (+16.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 45 away games (+16.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 51-41 against the Run Line (+4.7 Units / 4.17% ROI).
- 37-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 4.82% ROI
- 43-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -5.48% ROI
- 44-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.45 Units / -2.44% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 44-48 against the Run Line (-8.3 Units / -6.96% ROI).
- 39-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.45 Units / -23.72% ROI
- 45-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.2 Units / -3.17% ROI
- 44-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -5.33% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .381 (16-for-42) against Josiah Gray on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .255 — third Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .635 (202 Total Bases / 318 ABs) on fastballs since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: .431 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .263 (54-for-205) against Josiah Gray this season — tied for 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 16th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (249/439) this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .375 (408 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .403 (226 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .315 — second Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has walked 48 of 409 batters (12%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .318 (220 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .597.
The Nationals are just 13-27 (.325) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Nationals are just 47-35 (.573) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Nationals are just 8-17 (.320) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cardinals are just 30-5 (.857) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Cardinals are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Cardinals are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Cardinals are just 27-6 (.818) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have drawn 141 walks in 2,302 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Nationals are just 2-8 (.200) against the run line (-49.1% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Nationals hitters have just 432 strikeouts in 2,302 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .785 (2,163 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Cardinals hitters have not struck out in 5 PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (1 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .337 (2,163 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .448 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 19% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Cardinals pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Jordan Montgomery (Cardinals): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Edman (Cardinals): Wrist, D10
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Jeimer Candelario (Nationals): Thumb, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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