- The Cardinals are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore, 3.00 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Steven Matz, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Roger Dean Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-165) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Jupiter.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Nationals vs Cardinals Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Nationals are 4-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 7-5 ATS.
Nationals vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -145 | O 10.5 -110 | +140 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +125 | U 10.5 -110 | -165 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 70.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- No trends found
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Paul DeJong has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 81 away games (+12.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 away games (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 27 away games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 67 games at home (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 games at home (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+9.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 96 games (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+6.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 6-5 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.7% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.45 Units / -4.09% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -48.55% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.6 Units / 37.86% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 7-5 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 21.86% ROI).
- 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 6.47% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -27.55% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 20.15% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of 30% (59/196) versus MacKenzie Gore last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore walked 37 of 309 batters (12%) last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 24% (152/633) against MacKenzie Gore last season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — fourth Percentile.
49% of MacKenzie Gore’s strikeouts came on 95+ MPH fastballs last season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 18% — 93rd Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .202 (91-for-451) against Steven Matz with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .165 — 10th Percentile.
Steven Matz has allowed a slugging percentage of .374 (201 Total Bases / 537 ABs) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: .266 — first Percentile.
42% of Steven Matz’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside since the start of the 2021 season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 90th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .220 (118-for-537) against Steven Matz with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: .166 — third Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 55-90 (.379) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 12-81 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cardinals are 16-4 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 47-11 (.810) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Cardinals are 49-9 (.845) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Cardinals are 71-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals hitters had 63 extra-base hits out of 242 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters slugged just .488 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Nationals hitters are slugging .233 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging .469 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .803 (2,611 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Cardinals hitters have 260 extra-base hits out of 599 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters had an OPS of .808 (1,366 PA’s) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- St. Louis Cardinals – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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