- The Cardinals (79-56) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (48-87)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-6), 4.21 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: José Quintana (4-6), 3.46 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Washington Nationals (+200) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-250) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Nationals vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 47-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 75-57 ATS.
Nationals vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +105 | O 8 -115 | +200 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 -125 | U 8 -105 | -250 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 62.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 32 away games (+20.05 Units / 61% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+17.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 33 away games (+13.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.85 Units / 34% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games at home (+17.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Over in 33 of his last 50 games at home (+16.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 55 games (+12.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 52 games at home (+12.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Cardinals vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Brendan Donovan | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Cardinals vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brendan Donovan | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -160 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -140 |
| Paolo Espino | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 69 of their last 122 games (+14.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 away games (+13.00 Units / 108% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+7.90 Units / 155% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+5.55 Units / 79% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.55 Units / 91% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 51 games (+3.20 Units / 5% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 58-74 against the Run Line (-23.05 Units / -14.34% ROI).
- 47-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -9.06% ROI
- 65-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.8 Units / -0.55% ROI
- 60-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -11 Units / -7.59% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 75-57 against the Run Line (+16.15 Units / 9.82% ROI).
- 76-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.5 Units / 5.24% ROI
- 61-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -11 Units / -7.6% ROI
- 65-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.7 Units / -1.18% ROI
Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paolo Espino has averaged 77.7 MPH on sliders since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .245 (46-for-188) against Paolo Espino with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .170 — first Percentile.
Paolo Espino has not allowed a walk in his last 73 PAs against a RHH dating back to July 30th — Chris Martin has the longest active streak at 164.
Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of .383 (72 Total Bases / 188 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .266 — first Percentile.
José Quintana: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 62% (1,175/1,894) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 55% (445/804) when ahead in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% (75/138) against Jose Quintana in two-strike counts this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 89th Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 62% (1,390/2,231) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Nationals are just 15-77 (.163) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 111-16 (.874) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Nationals are just 7-74 (.086) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Nationals are just 48-73 (.397) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cardinals are 43-8 (.843) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Cardinals are 7-44 (.137) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Cardinals are 29-3 (.906) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Cardinals are 13-4 (.765) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .329 (5,677 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 279 double plays in 2,182 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 245 extra-base hits out of 565 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .475 against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .827 (1,189 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .478 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .271 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have walked 476 of 5,211 batters (9%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 132 double plays in 1,018 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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