- The Cubs (44-65) are -160 favorites vs the Nationals (37-75)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (7-8), 4.92 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele (4-7), 3.66 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Washington Nationals (+135) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-160) on Wednesday, August 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Nationals vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 37-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 55-54 ATS.
Nationals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -115 | +135 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -105 | -160 |
Nationals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nelson Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 22 away games (+10.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 32 games (+9.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 30 away games (+9.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 55 games (+17.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 38 of his last 60 games (+15.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+15.40 Units / 56% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+14.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Cubs vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rafael Ortega | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Cubs vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Rafael Ortega | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
Cubs vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Ortega | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Steele | 4.5 -175 | 4.5 +120 |
| Josiah Gray | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 -110 |
| Justin Steele | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 60 of their last 99 games (+21.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 91 games (+8.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 19 games (+2.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+11.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+8.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 47-65 against the Run Line (-26.55 Units / -19.34% ROI).
- 37-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.9 Units / -18.83% ROI
- 56-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.1 Units / 1.69% ROI
- 49-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.85 Units / -9.69% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 55-54 against the Run Line (-7.7 Units / -5.47% ROI).
- 44-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.4 Units / -14.91% ROI
- 47-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.5 Units / -12.06% ROI
- 56-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.6 Units / 3.83% ROI
Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.118 (19 Total Bases / 17 ABs) this month (1 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .414 — 0 Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 31 of 207 left-handed batters (15%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .648 (284 Total Bases / 438 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .480 — 0 Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 49 of 350 left-handed batters (14%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Justin Steele: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has a strikeout rate of 50% (10 SO in 20 PAs) this month (1 games) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has pitched 13.1 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Caleb Ferguson has the longest active streak at 20.0.
Justin Steele has allowed an OPS of just .360 (152 PA’s) on non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .639 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (181/422) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are just 17-40 (.298) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Nationals are just 37-63 (.370) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 65-103 (.387) at home since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Nationals are just 11-68 (.139) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 2-50 (.038) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Cubs are just 21-31 (.404) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Cubs are just 17-52 (.246) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 17-98 (.148) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have grounded into 265 double plays in 2,015 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 107 double plays in 777 opportunities (14%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .341 (3,131 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .075 against LHP this month (4 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .229.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 327 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .125 (56 PA’s) against LHP this month (4 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .257 (56 PA’s) against LHP this month (4 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .681.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .309 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.32 (977.0 IP) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.99 (460.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 7.63 (72.0 IP) this month (9 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Clippard (Nationals): Groin, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Luis García (Nationals): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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